Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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944 FXUS61 KALY 102323 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly cloudy and cool conditions with some lingering showers expected mainly west of the Hudson River this evening into tonight, with some clearing from around Albany south and east overnight. Saturday looks to be mainly dry, especially for areas from Albany south and east. Then an upper level low will bring additional showers Saturday night into Sunday, with continued below normal temperatures. Unsettled weather continues into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 723 PM EDT...A weak upper level disturbance continues to track across the region for this evening, but it looks to be exiting off to the east for tonight. Meanwhile, a lingering surface trough remains in place west of the region over western New York. The combination of these nearby features, along with daytime heating, as allowed for spotty light rain showers to develop. Radar imagery continues to show a few of these still ongoing over the Adirondacks. A few light sprinkles may also be ongoing across parts of the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Over the next few hours, the trend will be for these showers to diminish, as the loss of daytime heating and the exiting upper level disturbance should continue to decrease coverage of these light showers for the most part. Can`t rule out a few lingering showers into the overnight for western and northern areas thanks to the nearby surface trough, but these look fairly spotty and brief. Sky cover is very variable, with several clouds layers out there at the moment. The loss of daytime heating should allow for some of the cu/stratocu to start to diminish over the next few hours. Also, some drier air working in from the northeast could allow for some breaks for eastern areas overnight as well. However, most spots (especially northern and western parts of the area) will continue to remain mostly cloudy overnight, as satellite imagery continues to show some layers of mid and high level clouds around. For those hoping to view the northern light, it`s rather uncertain, as there will be variable amounts of cloud cover around, although since it won`t be totally overcast, some viewing may be possible from time to time. Lows overnight look to generally be in the 40s, although some upper 30s are possible for eastern areas that see enough breaks in the cloud cover. Short wave ridging develops on Sat ahead of an approaching/deepening upper low approaching from the Great Lakes. Subsidence associated with the ridging should result in mostly dry conditions, especially from the Capital District south/east much of the day. As heights aloft start to fall as the trough gets closer, chances for showers will gradually increase from west to east during the afternoon to early evening hours for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Despite the cool air mass in place, some sunshine should help high temperatures reach the lower/mid 60s in most valley locations, with 50s in the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned upper trough moves into the region Sat night, with the core of the upper low tracking into western NY/PA. This system will bring additional scattered to numerous showers, spreading east across the area through the overnight hours. With clouds/showers around, low temperatures will range from upper 30s to upper 40s. The upper low/trough consolidates over eastern NY into New England on Sun, which will continue to result in areas of showers pivoting around the circulation. Will continue to mention high chance to likely PoPs through the first half of the day. As the upper low tracks into western New England late in the day, coverage of showers should tend to decrease. With more extensive cloud cover and showers around compared to Sat, temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the 50s to lower 60s. The upper low shifts eastward off the New England coast Sun night, with short wave ridging developing in its wake. This should result in clearing skies with cooler low temperatures in the upper 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower elevations. Upper ridging already flattens out on Mon, while at the surface a warm front will be quickly approaching from the west. So chances for showers will gradually increase during the day with the approach of the warm front. Depending on how much sunshine can occur during the first half of the day, temperatures are expected to moderate back to near normal levels (upper 60s in valleys). Will continue to mention mainly chance PoPs for showers Mon night as the warm front progresses north/east across the area. Lows will be milder than recent nights with upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Our region is expected to be in a warm sector with a SW flow aloft developing, as an upper low tracks east across central Quebec. At the surface, a cold front will be gradually pushing eastward during the day. There should be enough forcing just ahead of the front to result in likely showers, with perhaps some thunderstorms depending on how much heating/instability can develop. The cold front pushes south/east across the area Tue night, bringing additional showers. The front is then expected to stall in vicinity of the northern mid Atlantic region. As an upper trough moves into the central/southern Appalachians, a surface wave of low pressure may develop along the stalled front. So chances for showers could linger into Wed depending on the eventual position of the front/wave. Will mention chance PoPs for now until guidance comes into better agreement. Thu now looks to be a dry day, as the front/wave move well offshore and ridging develops both at the surface and aloft. Temperatures could warm to slightly above normal levels given sufficient sunshine. The upper ridge axis shifts east of the area on Fri, as a potentially strong system starts to approach from the upper Plains states and Midwest. Guidance differs with the timing/track this far out, so will go with chance PoPs for now. If the pattern ends up more amplified, dry conditions may persist through the day though. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. Spotty light showers across the region will be starting to diminish, although a brief shower still can`t be ruled out for the late night hours at KGFL/KALB thanks to a nearby surface trough. Still, any shower looks to have a limited impact on flying conditions, so will continue to mention VFR conditions through the overnight with bkn cigs around 4-6 kft for all sites. Winds will be light and variable overnight. On Saturday, it will continue to be VFR. Clouds will continue to be bkn around 6 kft, although some more breaks are possible for southern areas near KPOU, with a period of just sct clouds possible there around midday. South to southeast winds will be 5 to 10 kts on Saturday for all sites. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Frugis