Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
873 FGUS71 KALY 281747 ESFALY CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095- 111-113-115-VTC003-025-041800- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 147 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...Flood threat is above normal for a portion of the Albany service area... Flood potential is above normal for far southeastern portions of the outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with the potential for rainfall events over the outlook period. The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is also considered near normal due to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and snowmelt. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season. A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does not address the potential for ice jam flooding. This is the seventh in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson, Mohawk and Housatonic. This outlook is valid for the two-week period from March 28th through April 11th. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... Despite a recent snowfall event, snow depth and snow water equivalent remain below normal across the ALY CWA. Snowpack in the higher terrain of the Western Adirondacks has about 6 to 10 inches of depth with liquid equivalents of 1 to 2 inches. The northwestern portion of Lake George region has about 5 to 14 inches of snow depth with liquid equivalent of a trace to 2 inches. The southeastern portion of the Lake George region is snow free. Southern Vermont has about 3 to 12 inches of snow depth, with liquid equivalent generally 1 to 5 inches. The rest of the service area is snow free or has so little liquid equivalent in the snowpack as to be hydrologically insignificant. ...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York continue to run above normal to much above normal. Per USGS monitoring wells, groundwater levels are primarily much above normal with a few monitoring locations near normal. Palmer drought severity remains much wetter than normal for the entire outlook area, generally extremely moist. New York State Mesonet observations show soil temperatures above freezing at all depths. ...WATER SUPPLY... New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water supply reservoir levels remain above normal for this time of year. Total storage is currently at 99.9 percent of capacity, or 5.1 percent above normal capacity for this time of year. Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels continue to rise and are above normal for this time of year. The Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 19 feet above normal for this time of year. Indian Lake is over 4 feet above normal for this time of year. In the Black River watershed, Stillwater Reservoir is over 4 feet above normal, First Lake is around a foot above normal, and Sixth Lake is less than a foot above normal. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... The 6 to 10 day Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for April 2 to 6 call for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Looking further out, the 8 to 14 day CPC outlooks for April 4 to 10 call for above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. ...SUMMARY... Flood potential is above normal for far southeastern portions of the outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with the potential for rainfall events over the outlook period. The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is also considered near normal due to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and snowmelt. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season. It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can produce flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have below normal snowpack and no river ice. Observed and forecast river information can be found on our web page at www.weather.gov/albany. $$ bew