294
FXUS64 KAMA 070525
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A strong upper level low is forecast to traverse east and adjacent
to our region through the day. A strong gradient is setup around
the upper low with a positive tilt, and at the surface a dryline
is attempting to form and is expected to mix east throughout the
day. Additionally, areas behind said dryline will be at risk for
critical fire weather. Tomorrow, a strong pressure gradient is
still in place for the area behind the main upper trough. Critical
fire weather will be possible again for the western Panhandles.

Today`s setup for severe thunderstorms in our area has seen some
fluctuation overtime, but in recent hours today it has seen a bit
of devolution. Subsidence is building in at the midlevels and is
not allowing a true dryline to form. Over the pass few hours, at
the time of this writing, we have seen cumulus try to pulse up but
they have been flattening out thanks to dry air entrainment. We
still cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm in the far
eastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon, as a second upper level
wave is expected to move through. The storm mode at this point
favors a linear regime, given how winds and the surface and at
the midlevels are nearly parallel to the main upper trough. Large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado could occur within a
brief hour window before it quickly moves east into western
Oklahoma. Meanwhile, critical fire weather conditions are in place
for the western half of the combined Panhandles. Strong surface
winds and very low RH values are driving the risk today.

Tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are expected again in
the much of the same area that is under the risk today. Minimum RH
values will still be below 10% for the west, but winds at the
surface are actually forecast to be lower than what we are
experiencing today. Even still, conditions will be met to see RFTI
values approach 7. High temperatures will still be in the 80`s
before decreasing behind a frontal boundary on Wednesday.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The long term forecast period will start off dry across the
Panhandles. A front will come through to start the forecast period
and bring high temperatures on Wednesday from near average to
below average for Thursday and Friday. Latest 06/12Z model and
numerical guidance suggests rain chances returning associated with
our next system moving southeast out of the central Rockies. NBM
POPs up to around 30% from second half of Saturday through Sunday
is suffice at this time and will be further analyzed as more data
comes in with time. High temperatures over the coming weekend will
remain near average for early May.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. West to
southwest winds are forecast during this TAF period. Gusty winds
return near 18z with gusts of 30 to near 40 kts at all sites.
Mostly clear skies will prevail at the terminals.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are very likely today for the
central and western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Breezy to gusty
west winds are forecast for this afternoon with gusts up to 40 to
45 mph. Relative humidity values will drop down into the single
digits today, with the lowest RH values around 7 percent. These
conditions combined with continued dry grasses will lead to
critical fire weather conditions and RFTI values between 5 to 9. A
Red Flag Warning is in affect for this afternoon through early
this evening.

Critical fire weather conditions will likely occur again on
Tuesday for the central and western Panhandles. Relative humidity
recovery on Monday night will be very poor with forecast maximum
RH values around 25 to 35 percent on Tuesday morning. West winds,
albeit a bit weaker, on Tuesday are likely with gusts up to 35 to
40 mph. Minimum RH values by Tuesday afternoon will once again
drop down to around 7 percent. These conditions will lead to RFTI
values in the 4 to 8 range on Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for the central and west given these conditions for
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                83  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  86  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              81  40  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  88  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  44  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  83  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               84  52  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 82  40  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  85  43  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                84  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  50  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   84  48  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                84  52  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              85  54  82  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...05