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000
FXUS64 KAMA 120504
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1204 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Upper level ridging is starting to take shape over the western
CONUS this afternoon, and will transition eastward toward the
Plains by tomorrow. As heights rise, temperatures will warm into
the 80s, and a south-southwest breeze (15-25 mph) will advect
increasingly dry air to western portions of the region. The
combination of breezy winds, warm dry air, and dry fuels could
lead to low end critical fire weather conditions for the far
northwest Panhandle tomorrow afternoon. South-southwesterly winds
will allow WAA to continue overnight, with overnight lows only
dropping to around 50 degrees.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions persist this weekend as upper
level ridging holds strong atop the Great Plains. Southwest flow
will increase ahead of the next upper level low, generating daily
lee cyclogenesis to maintain the pressure gradient. Temperatures
continue to rise Sat-Sun, with several locations across the
eastern Panhandles approaching or surpassing the 90 degree mark.
Unfortunately, elevated to low end critical fire weather
conditions can`t be ruled out either of these days. Aside from
Monday, generally benign weather is forecast through the middle
of next week.

Monday has potential to be quite an active weather day, when
models loosely agree the aforementioned upper-level low ejects
towards the Rockies. A dichotomy of hazards would be in play with
this vigorous system, with fire weather conditions likely to the
west of a dry line, and all modes of severe weather possible along
and east of the dryline. Guidance remains split on where to
delineate this transition, and whether or not the severe weather
threat associated with the dryline will extend westward into the
Panhandles. Regardless, confidence is highest that at least
western portions of the CWA will be dry and windy with fire
weather concerns, potentially gusting up to 45 mph. The track of
the low and location of the dryline remains the biggest
contingencies, but should it linger further west into the eastern
Panhandles before being overtaken by a Pacific front, shear,
moisture, and instability would likely be more than sufficient to
support severe thunderstorms. Uncertainty is still on the higher
side for this forecast, so continue to check back for updates as
details hopefully come into better clarity.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast. Low-level
wind shear is expected at KAMA and KDHT tonight, and at KGUY this
evening. Otherwise, winds around 10 kts or less is expected
tonight before strengthening to 10 to 20 kts during the day.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Low end critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow for
the western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas Panhandle. Here,
breezy southwest winds sustained 15-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph
will overlap with low RH values as low as 8-10 percent. The low
level thermal ridge should be weak, but with highs in the 80s,
fuels should be at least somewhat receptive to fire starts.

Saturday and Sunday could see continued elevated fire weather
conditions with 15-25 mph winds out of the west-southwest and
relative humidity values below 10 percent.

Solidly critical fire weather conditions will be possible again
on Monday. Southwest winds are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph
range with higher gusts up to 45 mph possible. Minimum relative
humidity values are expected to be around or below 10 percent
across at least the western combined Panhandles, depending on
where a dry line sets up.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                83  51  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  85  52  90  49 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              82  48  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  88  53  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  81  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               83  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 82  45  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  84  49  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                81  48  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   82  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                82  51  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              82  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...52