Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212348
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Watching the latest 19Z obs across the Panhandles, the main WV
satellite image shows quite the pronounced h500 trough moving
southeast into east central New Mexico. As it does so, the
best lift associated with the system should stay south of the
Texas Panhandle. Temperatures across the Panhandles have also
warmed up well into the 60s at this hour. Modifying our sounding
from this morning, The main limiting factor for rain and
thunderstorms this evening could be our limited Td values only
currently in the 30s into the lower 40s. However, radar analysis
under the main trough axis of the cold core trough a few sfc
boundaries to note. This surface convergence, along with mid
level lapse rates of > 7 degC/km could be suffice for showers and
thunderstorms to develop, favoring the southern TX Panhandle from
I-40 corridor points south. If updraft can become more
sustainable, strong wind gusts and hail could be possible with
storms, if they develop. Storm chances will diminish going past
sunset as the main source of cold air aloft continues to shift
east. Conditions expected to clear out tonight for most areas.
Could see some patchy to area coverage of fog for the far eastern
Panhandles by early tomorrow morning. Low temperatures tonight
will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Dry conditions expected
for the day tomorrow. With north and northeasterly flow,
temperatures could be a degree or two cooler than today under
mostly clear skies.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

For the start of the extended, an upper wave will traverse across
the CWA. Models show a tightening pressure gradient over the
region by Sunday. This will allow the trough to strengthen over
our area before it exits out to the east. A cold front will tail
behind this system at the surface as the upper trough progresses
towards the southeast. The rest of the week will continue with
zonal flow until our next upper system develops by next Thursday
or Friday.

Saturday, some of the precursors for the full strength of this
system will begin in the afternoon. Sustained winds could get up
to 35 mph, gusting to 45 mph at times. Some inhibitors for this
setup will be higher moisture content, cloud coverage, and lower
surface temperatures as a result. Still, elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions may exist in the northwest Panhandles.

Sunday, as the upper system moves across the Panhandles many
changes will occur within a 24 hour timeframe. Critical fire
weather conditions and high winds will be the primary headlines,
as minimum RH values will drop the the teens area wide, and
sustained winds will now reach 40 mph, with severe gusts greater
than 58 mph possible. As mentioned, a tight gradient of pressure
will strengthen the 500 mb jet above us. +60 mph winds from 700 mb
will easily mix down to the surface, with minimal cloud coverage
to inhibit high wind speeds. Blowing dust will also be a concern
for the afternoon hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
have been strictly limited to the far east for Sunday afternoon
and evening. Confidence in moisture retention is quite low at
this time. Models have now displaced the dryline further to the
east, so we have restricted slight chance PoPs for those areas
only. Towards the overnight hours, a cold front will transition
across the Panhandles. On the backside of this system, there are
some chances for rain and snow with the northwest Panhandles being
the most favored to receive this precipitation. Lows overnight
will also drop below freezing for most of the CWA.

Monday onward, cool surface temperatures settle in after the cold
front passes. Monday highs will range in the 40`s and lower 50`s,
while freezing temperature may return in the overnight period.
From then on, temperatures will recover throughout the week, and
we will keep an eye on the next system that may potential impact
us next Thursday or Friday. This will be depended on the speed of
our next upper low, with the GFS being faster than the ECMWF.
Either way, strong winds are probable when the system passes and
moisture will remain limited.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period at all TAF sites,
with MVFR fog remaining just to the east of AMA/GUY. Uncertainty
remains at AMA, so have included a non-operational visibility
reduction as a heads up to potential fog timing. In the immediate
term, a stray lightning strike could impact AMA but these are
expected to remain 10 miles or greater away from the terminal as
scattered TS slowly moves to the southeast.

Ferguson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
Saturday, while critical fire weather conditions are becoming
likely on Sunday. Coverage areas are focused on the northwest
Panhandles on Saturday, and Sunday`s critical concerns are area
wide. Winds will be strong at the surface and 20 ft AGL on both
of those day, though Sunday`s winds will be the stronger of the
two. Minimum RH values start around 30% on Saturday, but then drop
to the teens by Sunday. This will allow maximum RFTI values to
rise from 2-3 on Saturday to 4-5 on Sunday. ERC Class will reach
the 75th percentile for both days, but the coverage becomes larger
by Sunday.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  69  37  66 /  20   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  38  67  31  65 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              38  64  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  41  71  37  69 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              38  70  38  70 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  38  70  38  67 /  20   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               42  72  37  64 /  20   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 35  66  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  37  66  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                37  72  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                42  68  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   41  69  35  64 /  20   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                43  72  35  63 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              44  74  37  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...77


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