Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FGUS73 KAPX 291632
ESFAPX
MIZ008-015>036-041-042-DDHHMM-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EST MON JAN 29 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  01/29/2024 - 04/28/2024

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  14   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B    7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK              7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING             6.0   11.0   13.0 :  53   56   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON           12.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 01/29/2024 - 04/28/2024
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              13.3   13.5   13.8   14.2   14.8   15.1   15.4
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     4.1    4.2    4.3    4.6    4.8    5.1    5.4
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               4.2    4.5    4.7    5.4    5.9    6.4    6.7
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              4.2    4.5    5.2    6.1    7.3    8.8    9.1
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               4.8    5.4    7.4    8.5   10.4   11.4   12.0
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             5.6    5.8    6.2    6.7    8.0    9.8   10.4

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 01/29/2024 - 04/28/2024
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              11.4   11.3   11.2   11.1   11.1   11.0   11.0
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               1.0    1.0    1.0    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/APX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 15TH WITH THE
FIRST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF 2024.

$$

JPB






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