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000
AXNT20 KNHC 202220
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough extends from 31N40W SW to near 21N56W. Low
pressure of 1014 mb is centered on the trough near 25N53W. The
area of low pressure will shift to a position just NE of the area
while deepening the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
Gale force winds are forecast to develop over the far NE waters,
SW of the low, by Mon afternoon. Seas will build to near 13 ft in
the area of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 08N13W and
continues to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N30W to
03N43W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 06N between 12W and 26W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 00N to 07N between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is over the NE Gulf near 27N84W. A
surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 23N95W to 20N96.5W. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting gentle to
moderate winds over the waters W of 91W. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range W of 90W, and 1-3
ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure over the NE Gulf will
begin to shift eastward tonight as a weak cold front approaches
the NW Gulf coast. Winds will generally remain at gentle to
moderate speeds tonight into early Sun. Winds will pulse fresh
to strong this evening near the northern Yucatan Peninsula this
evening. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late
tonight into early Sun, then reach the southeastern Gulf Monday
and Monday evening as it weakens. Fresh to locally strong winds
and building seas may follow the front through Sun night. High
pressure will again settle over the region by Tue and change
little through Thu night. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure over the southern Plains is expected
to increase the southeast winds in the western Gulf starting on
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of the basin. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, low pressure
over Colombia, and the equatorial trough is supporting moderate
trades W of 65W, reaching fresh speeds just S of Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are E of 65W. Seas
are in the 4-5 ft range south of Hispaniola and the Windward
passage, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure north of the basin
will support pulsing fresh to locally strong winds near the
Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic, and near the
coast of northern Colombia through early Sun. Similar winds will
return and pulse near northern Colombia Mon evening through Wed
evening. Winds pulse to fresh speeds near northern Colombia Thu
evening. Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh in the
northwestern Caribbean through early Sun, then again in the
mornings through Thu. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail
elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on an upcoming gale in the central
Atlantic.

A surface trough extends from 31N40W SW to near 21N56W. Low
pressure of 1014 mb is centered on the trough near 25N53W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
300 NM of the trough axis N of 26N and within 90 nm east of the
trough axis from 21N to 26N. Fresh to strong winds are within 60
nm N of the low, with moderate to fresh winds within 90 nm either
side of the trough. Seas over these waters are in the 5-6 ft
range. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters S of
31N, with a 1020 mb high centered near 26N67W, a 1018 mb high Low
pressure of 1014 mb is centered near 25N53W.centered near
26N34W, and a 1022 mb high centered near 30N28W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the high centers. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail south of the highs. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted near
the high centers, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
region through Sun night, supporting mainly gentle to moderate
winds. A cold front is forecast to move over the waters off
northeast Florida Sun night. The front will reach from 31N72W to
near Jupiter, Florida Mon evening, from near 31N69W to the central
Bahamas Tue evening, from near Bermuda to the southeastern
Bahamas Wed evening, then weaken to a nearly stationary trough on
Thu and Thu night from 31N62W to 25N65W and to near the Dominican
Republic. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 31N, are
forecast to accompany the front, along with building seas.
Otherwise, seas will be mainly slight to moderate throughout.

$$
AL