748
FXUS61 KBGM 081845
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
245 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon and
evening across the NY Thruway but most of the region will be
warm and breezy with dry conditions. A cold front moves in
tonight that will mark the beginning of a cooler pattern with
frequent chances of rain showers into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
225 PM Update...

Dry air has really mixed into the boundary layer this morning
that has reduced the chances of storms this afternoon and
evening. A bit of surface convergence across the NY Thruway has
been able to generate a bit more in the way of agitated cumulus
as well as a couple of developing showers. Right now with the
high shear, the storms move out of our area before they deepen
into thunderstorms and it is likely that will persist into the
early evening. A cold front is dropping south through the Great
Lakes but the timing of its arrival will be after the better
moisture and forcing leaves the region with low chances of
precipitation mainly north of I90.

Tomorrow is looking much cooler with northerly flow advecting
in cooler 850 mb temperatures. As the upper level trough slowly
drops south through the day, a 500 mb shortwave and associated
surface low moves through the mid Atlantic increasing chances of
rain mainly in NEPA with CNY staying dry before sunset.
Tomorrow night, an inverted trough sets up with light rain
overspreading the region. QPF amounts are looking light, largely
staying under half an inch and the rain rates will also be
light, likely staying below a 10th of an inch per hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update:

Friday will be the coldest day of the week as a shortwave trough
moves into the region, towing in a cold air mass with it.
General rain showers can be expected for Friday, with high
temperatures in the low-50s. Going into the weekend, the
shortwave trough continues moving east into the region, with
rain showers expected and chances of afternoon thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update:

After the aforementioned shortwave trough pushes east and out
of the region Sunday night, we`ll see a slight warming trend
heading into the first half of the week, with temperatures
potentially in the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. Conditions will
be showery through the week, with chances for thunderstorms
during the late afternoon into evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry air has moved in with VFR conditions at all terminals. A few
showers are trying to develop around RME and SYR and will be
monitored but most of the storms will stay to the east. Tonight,
a cold front moves through with cigs falling back down to MVFR
cor CNY terminals. ITH and SYR have the best chance at seeing
IFR cigs briefly early in the morning. Cigs will begin to rise
and scatter out later in the morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...VFR

Thursday Night through Monday...Periods of showers with some
restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG