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000
FXUS64 KBMX 151716
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT MON APR 15 2024

Dry weather for the next two days with temperatures in the low to
mid 80s today. There will be a little bit more cloud cover on
Tuesday with the advancement of a system expected Tuesday night,
so temperatures may be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday, but remain
in the 80s across much of the area. Southerly flow will strengthen
across our region in advance of this system, and we can expect
warm and somewhat breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT MON APR 15 2024

Rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
trailing cold front approaches from the northwest. As the southern
end of the front loses upper-level support, the front should
weaken and decrease in forward speed. The southern extent of rain
chances may be limited to the northern half of the forecast area
on Wednesday.

There appears to be a break in the rain chances for Thursday
before another upper-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances are
expected to increase on Friday as a front approaches from the
northwest. This activity may linger into Saturday, but model
consistency and agreement is rather poor as we wait on the kicker
trough that should move through Sunday into next Monday.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. A few mid to upper
level clouds are expected over the eastern third of the area
today while scattered mid and high clouds will move east over the
west and parts of the central portions of the area through the
afternoon. Low-level winds will be from southwest at 4-8 kts.
Scattered mid to high clouds are forecast overnight with continued
low-level winds from the southwest but light at 1-3 kts followed
by scattered mid and high clouds Tuesday with low-level winds from
the southwest at 6-10 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Better rain chances return Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly
for the north and east. low level moisture begins to return
today with 20 ft winds increasing from the south-southwest at
5-8 mph. Minimum RH values will range from 25 to 35 percent.
Locations in the east are most likely to drop to 25 percent, and
only for a few hours. Overnight RH values tonight rebound to
above 80 percent. Tuesday, 20 ft winds become southerly at
6-12 mph, with minimum RH values above 28 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  83  61  77 /   0   0  10  40
Anniston    56  84  61  79 /   0   0  10  30
Birmingham  59  83  63  78 /   0   0  10  40
Tuscaloosa  59  82  64  80 /   0   0  10  40
Calera      57  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  30
Auburn      56  83  61  80 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  56  84  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        55  85  60  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05