077
FXUS64 KBRO 080525
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1225 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Message:

- Hot and unseasonably warm temperature are expected through
the short term.

-A Heat Advisory is in effect Wednesday afternoon from 1 PM to 7 PM
for inland, Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Hidalgo and
Brooks counties.

-Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday.

Zonal to slightly southwesterly flow aloft over the short term
period will lead to abnormally warm temperatures, heat indices in
the triple digits and dry conditions. At the surface, high pressure
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide southerly
flow. Low pressure across the Sierra Madre will lead to an increased
pressure gradient and slightly increased winds along the coast east
afternoon. We continue to see abundant cloud cover today, but as we
head into later this afternoon we should see a bit more clearing in
the afternoon.

Lets talk heat. Temperatures this afternoon will be well above
normal but thanks to lingering cloud cover, heat indices will
likely remain just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. For Wednesday,
temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs rising into the
90s and low triple digits across the region. Heat indices will
rise to between 104 degrees and 113 degrees across the entire CWA
away from the Island with the highest heat indices along the I-69C
corridor. A Heat Advisory has been issued for inland Cameron,
inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Brooks, and Hidalgo counties with
heat indices between 111 degrees and 113 degrees Wednesday
afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Hot temperatures will continue to be the main concern for the
start of the long term period. As the dryline over Central Texas
shifts further east Thursday temperatures will again rise into the
triple digits. Higher dewpoints east of the dryline will likely
support heat indices in the 111-115 range roughly along and east
of I-69C Thursday afternoon.

A passing upper level shortwave looks to support the passage of a
cold front Thursday night into Friday. This will likely bring
more seasonal temperatures for the weekend, with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Easterly to southeasterly surface
winds look to return by Sunday, bringing a slight increase in
temperatures and moisture.

Rain chances look to remain fairly low through the period, however
increased forcing and ample instability could support a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms along the cold front Friday.
Additional rain chances look possible through the day Saturday as
weak overrunning looks to setup behind the front. With the return
of easterly to southeasterly surface winds Sunday, increased
moisture and instability could again support a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain looks to be
Sunday, with PoPs around 20-30%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR ceilings, with intermittent periods of IFR ceilings, will
prevail through the mid morning hours on Wednesday at all TAF
sites. The development of patchy fog may result in visibility
falling to around 3-5SM through 13-14Z. Improvement to VFR
ceilings will occur from west to east, around 16Z for MFE, and
around 18-19Z for HRL and BRO. Another round of MVFR ceilings is
expected after 03-05Z. Otherwise, southeast winds around 10-15
knots with occasional gusts around 20-25 knots will prevail
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate southeast winds
and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period.
Tonight, we could see some patchy fog/hazy conditions on the Gulf
waters. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
will be possible each afternoon, especially across the Laguna
Madre and northern Gulf waters due to elevated winds.

Thursday through next Tuesday...Light to moderate winds and
moderate seas are likely Thursday. However, stronger northeasterly
winds behind a cold front Friday will likely require Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Friday
afternoon. Wind speeds look to diminish Friday night, with light
to moderate winds and moderate seas continuing through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  78 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               99  76 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                102  77 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        105  76 107  73 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  78  88  78 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ250-251-253>255-353.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...22-Garcia