053
FXUS61 KBUF 140249
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1049 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers associated with a passing warm front will remain along the
northern fringe of the north country through most of the night. This
front will usher in a period warm and unsettled weather which will
last through the middle of the week. After this, a weak high
pressure ridge will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather
outside of a few afternoon showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
Showers are found mainly across the far northern portion of the
eastern Lake Ontario area currently, as a warm front pushes
northeast across the region. Showers will settle a bit farther north
along the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Current temperatures across
the area are in the low/mid 60s for most areas, with the slightly
warmer temperatures across WNY.

The warm front will stall from the north shores of Lake Ontario
to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight. Chances of showers will
linger near the boundary, while the bulk of Western NY will be
rain free. Temperatures will fall to the 50s tonight.

The frontal boundary to the north will slowly sag southward
during the day Tuesday. Limited diurnal instability will develop
across Western NY, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing Tuesday afternoon. The greatest coverage will be
south and east of Lake Ontario with slightly lower chances on
and along its immediate shorelines. Precipitable water values
nearing 1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but weak
flow aloft will result in slow storm motion. The potential
exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with
any convective activity. Modest PWAT values lower the risk for
flash flooding, but the risk is non-zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A 500 hPa trough will pass across the Ohio Valley and the mid-
Appalachians Wednesday and Wednesday night. While most of the
showers associated with this feature will be to our south, there
will be a easterly flow of Atlantic moisture into our region that
will bring scattered showers through the day Wednesday. Highest
chances for showers will be to our east, closer to the deeper
Atlantic moisture, but also along a convergent boundary. This
boundary, southeast flow around the trough aloft, and northeast flow
from a incoming area of high pressure, will serve as a boundary for
likely PoPs through the afternoon, and into the evening hours. The
light flow could lead to some patches of fog Wednesday night in
areas where daytime rain occurred.

Highs Wednesday will reach towards 70 near the Lakes, while inland
and under deeper moisture and rain showers...mid 60s. Temperatures
at night will dip down into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A progressive flow aloft with impulses and shortwaves rippling
through will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms this
period, with the best chances for showers and even a rumble of
thunder Friday night and Saturday with a trough passage.

To start this period, Thursday will be mostly dry, with low PWATS
and a narrow ridge of high pressure nearby...this between an east
coast low, and trough across the Plains. However there is a
possibility that a few showers from the east coast low sneak far
enough westward into our eastern CWA.

This western trough, and its additional lift, will push eastward,
likely in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. Will place likely
PoPs with the trough passage, along with a slight chance for thunder
with MUCAPE values around 500 J/KG ahead of the trough. Behind the
trough lowering chances for precipitation, through a secondary
trough dropping out of Canada may bring chances for showers Sunday.
Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will average just above
normal, and then the final two days of this period, Sunday and
Monday will be even warmer with a milder airmass pushing northward.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather for most locations tonight as the frontal boundary lifts
northward. Some showers may linger near KART which will be closest
to the boundary. Mainly VFR flight conditions for tonight through
Tuesday morning. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
increase with instability Tuesday afternoon. Mainly VFR with
localized IFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with
lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterly flow today, but winds will be strongest
on the land due to lake breeze enhancement. Winds on the waters
expected to remain below Small Craft criteria. After this, there
will be a relatively weak flow, with winds expected to remain below
15 knots through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/SW
NEAR TERM...Apffel/SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel