754
FXUS62 KCAE 291434
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1034 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to linger just offshore and will help drive
warm southwesterly flow across our area today. A quick moving trough
aloft will push into the area Tuesday and bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Broad ridging aloft will develop for the rest of
the week with some isolated showers or storms possible each
afternoon and temps rise above average before precip chances
increase over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridge over the area shifts a little to the east today.
Surface high offshore extending into the area will increase a bit of
low level moisture with southerly to southeasterly winds. That said,
overall the air mass remains relatively dry with precipitable water
at most near 1". Cumulus field is starting to develop late this
morning as temperatures are increasing. Warm advection will persist
along with strong subsidence so temperatures should be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday, generally in the lower 80s for highs. With
the upper ridge shifting east, trough will be moving into the lower
Mississippi Valley by evening. Expect an increase in mid and high
level clouds overnight ahead of the trough on southwest flow aloft.
Any convection associated with the approaching upper level
disturbance should remain well west of the area through the night.
CAM models show convection as far east as north Georgia by 30/12z
Tuesday morning. Overnight low temps a little warmer in the upper
50s to around 60 with the increasing cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly sharp and quick moving coupled 250-500mb trough aloft
will push towards the area for Tuesday, with offshore high
pressure continuing to drive southwest low level flow out
ahead. A weak moisture gradient, but little in the way of a temp
gradient, will approach the area in conjunction with the 500mb
trough and surface low over the Mid- Atlantic. The synoptic lift
aloft with this approaching shortwave and the surface boundary
should yield sufficient forcing to help pop some scattered
convection by early afternoon and into the evening. Model
soundings are not terribly impressive with fairly mediocre mid-
level lapse rates and strong low level mixing only yielding
500-1000 j/kg of ML CAPE; GEFS, EC, and all the HREF members in
range keep instability below 1000 j/kg. The relatively dry low
levels appears to be the main limiting factor keeping
instability relatively low as surface dew points remain stuck in
the upper 50`s and low 60`s across the area, and points south-
southwest. But despite only weak-moderate instability, guidance
does depict a fairly sharp 500 mb shortwave overrunning a
notable surface boundary, which obviously would favor more
widespread convective development. While the trough aloft will
provide an impetus for some cloud layer shear, severe potential
regardless is expected to remain fairly isolated due to the
limited instability; CSU severe and SPC continued their marginal
risk and general thunder respectively.

Notably drier air will fill in briefly for Wednesday behind the
trough as ridging quickly builds thanks to broad subsidence,
low level dry advection, and downsloping flow below 500mb. Temps
will warm back above average, pushing 90F, on Wednesday as
skies clear out and the aforementioned northwest downsloping
flow ramps up.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft across the SE CONUS will dominate the pattern
through the weekend as temps remain above average. NAEFS shows
a steadily building heights and temps aloft through the long
term period and there is good agreement across guidance through
at least Saturday in keeping the forecast area generally dry
(outside of some isolated showers). A series of shortwaves will
cut to our north as we move through the weekend however,
increasing our shower- storm chances, but none of these
shortwaves will dig deep enough south to usher in an airmass
change. Fairly good agreement across the ensemble and
deterministic guidance continues through the weekend, with the
highest chances for precip coming late Saturday then again into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through at least 30/09z.

FEW-SCT mid-level clouds develop through the day, maybe becoming BKN
but CIGs remaining VFR. Winds southwest to south 5 to 10 knots
becoming southeast early in the evening. High clouds increase late
in the evening. Guidance is suggesting CIG restrictions possible
near around daybreak Tuesday due to stratus as low level moisture
continues to increase.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$