Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
214 FXUS62 KCAE 031841 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 241 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active weather for the weekend through early next week with showers and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Temperatures continue warming through the low to mid 80s across the forecast area with cumulus also developing as weak southeast to southerly flow pushes moisture into the area. WSR-88D imagery shows showers along the western periphery of the forecast area with a few moving into the northern CSRA. Although there is moisture and instability across the area flow across the area is weak and a trigger mechanism is lacking. As such expect the showers to continue developing along with a few thunderstorms through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. With sunset and loss of heating convection will diminish however during the early morning and sunrise hours the chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a short wave with divergence aloft moves into the area. Shower and thunderstorms chance at daybreak will be around 40 percent in the western Midlands through central CSRA quickly tapering to less than 14 percent in the eastern Midlands. High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The axis of an upper trough is expected to continue sliding eastward, putting us in a southwest flow aloft regime for the next couple of days. A series of embedded shortwaves are forecast to move over the region. At the surface, high pressure off the coast remains generally in place, allowing for southeast surface winds across the forecast area. As a result of this combination, PWATs are expected to increase to 1.6-1.7 inches, which is near the climatological top of moisture for this time of year. With this amount of moisture available, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to spread across the area Saturday and Sunday, with peak coverage in the afternoons. With a lack of low level forcing mechanism, most of the activity is likely to be driven by the passing shortwaves. With the ridging aloft, instability and shear are limited, especially shear. Therefore, severe thunderstorms are not really expected. With the widespread cloud cover and scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, daytime temperatures are forecast to be closer to average for this time of year compared to the past couple of days. The increased moisture is expected to keep temperatures several degrees above average each night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A persistent pattern of broad ridging, with passing shortwaves over the Southeast is expected to bring a continued summer-like pattern to the region. This should lead to nearly daily shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek, but coverage is anticipated to steadily decline after Monday. Temperatures are also expected to gradually increase due to the stagnant pattern aloft, with highs mid to late week in the lower to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions into the early morning then increasing potential for restrictions. Southeast to southerly flow continues to push moisture into the region with a few showers currently west of the terminals. Over the next couple of hours expect the showers to near AGS/DNL with VCSH beginning around 22z then 04/00z for CAE/CUB. With little dynamic support for the convection confidence is too low to include timing into any terminal. With daybreak additional moisture will move into the terminals as flow turns southerly and cigs begin lowering in response to increasing instability. With the increasing clouds tonight fog is not expected. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Late night/early morning fog possible through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday and Monday with decreasing chances Tuesday onward. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$