249
FXUS62 KCHS 291929
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
329 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak
disturbance will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, then a
weak cold front will stall in the vicinity this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Aloft, the main axis of a mid-upper level ridge will nudge
east offshore in advance of h5 shortwave energy associated with a
trough advancing across the Deep South. At the sfc, high pressure
will remain in control, extending from the western Atlantic through
the night. Guidance still suggests a few showers potentially
developing across the Gulf Stream late, but activity is not expected
to shift across land. Diurnally driven clouds will erode early,
favoring a fair amount of radiational cooling as sfc winds become
light within a few hours after sunset. However, cirrus associated
with the activity across the Deep South will likely arrive late
night, limiting overall cooling potential within a few hours prior
to daybreak. In general, lows should range between the upper 50s to
lower 60s, cooler across parts of southeast South Carolina away from
the coast. Coastal locations should remain in the mid 60s with a
light onshore wind through the night. There remains some potential
for patchy fog well inland late tonight, but increasing clouds
should limit coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper shortwave will pass across the region Tuesday into Tuesday
night and provide a bit more active weather than recent days. The
first half of Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry then there will
be an uptick in convective coverage as we move into the afternoon
and persisting through the evening and the overnight. Less coverage
is expected on Wednesday as the upper wave shifts offshore, but a
surface trough lingering in the vicinity could still trigger
isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures generally peak in the mid 80s inland of the beaches,
while lows stay in the 60s.

Ridge builds over the region on Thursday which will act to limit
rain chances. It will be the warmest day of the set, with highs
reaching the upper 80s to near 90 away from the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge extending across the region on Friday will slide
east over the weekend as a weakening shortwave moves in. The surface
pattern largely features high pressure although a weak surface
trough will linger in the area. These features will support low-end
rain chances (generally 20-30%) over the weekend, with the highest
coverage inland.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 18Z Tuesday. Any low stratus and/or
patchy fog late tonight looks to occur well inland from all sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic will
extend across the region, maintaining quiet marine conditions across
local waters. In general, winds will remain at or below 10-15 kt,
slightly veering to south-southeast overnight. Seas will range
between 2-4 ft, largest across offshore Georgia waters.

Tuesday through Saturday: Atlantic high pressure will remain the
dominant feature Tuesday through Saturday, with winds generally no
higher than 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. A moderate coastal sea breeze
will develop each afternoon.

Rip Currents: A small swell every 9 or 10 seconds and continued
onshore winds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at
all beaches into early evening.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...DPB/ETM
MARINE...DPB/ETM