Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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977 FXUS64 KCRP 110404 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1104 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Several coastal sites and buoy 42019 suggest a predominate Small Craft Exercise caution condition, which is consistent with the NAM and RAP deterministic runs. The RAP/NAM winds over the waters are predicted to decrease somewhat by 09z Saturday. Nevertheless, decided to increase wind over the waters to the Small Craft Exercise Caution threshold of 15-20kt for tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: - Low chance (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday night. A diffuse cold front that has either moved through or is just moving through the region will continue over the region. The wind direction and trough is south of BRO, while the thermal and moisture gradient is just starting to move into the northern Brush Country and the Victoria Crossroads. If you use the 850 temperatures as a proxy, the GFS has the front part way through the Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains by 12z/Sat, while the ECMWF holds the front back to the northwest. In either case, the front will slowly move through or fizzle over the next 36 hours. This leads to the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially with PWAT values of 1.5-1.8" over the region. Saturday night, the a 500 mb shortwave trough begins to move east into west Texas, but at this point it looks like the precipitation will stay out until later on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: - Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday An unsettled pattern will be in place through Sunday and Monday as a mid-level low pressure center moves out of the Rockies and into the Central US. Shortwaves rotating through the flow associated with this low will help to give us some rain chances, though the best rain chances will continue to be over northern parts of our forecast area (mainly the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Moisture will be streaming northward with continued low level southeasterly flow. PWAT values approach 2" for eastern portions of our area, but a CAP in place will limit thunderstorm activity. Higher resolution guidance that goes out through Sunday shows little activity over our area. Another low end (20-30%) rain chance returns Thursday as the ridge breaks down and we may actually get another front approaching the area Friday. Mid-level ridging builds for the middle part of the week with warming temperatures and continued high dewpoints leading to uncomfortable humidity. Heat index values around or slightly above 100 will be expected Monday through Thursday while high temperatures will be in the 90s for much of the area, with mid and upper 80s northeast. Monday looks like the hottest day west with temps at or slightly above 100 in the Rio Grande Plains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Expect predominate MVFR ceilings tonight through early Saturday afternoon, followed by a mixture of MVFR/VFR for the afternoon, followed by a transition to predominate MVFR again toward the end of the TAF period. Isolated showers are expected tonight through Saturday morning, followed by isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially over the southern terminals (LRD, ALI, CRP), Saturday afternoon. Generally weak to moderate northeast/east flow overnight/early Saturday, followed by east/southeast flow for the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected to persist through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There is a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. Weak to moderate southeasterly flow will continue Sunday through late in the week. There is a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances return by late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 85 76 90 / 30 10 20 30 Victoria 72 86 73 87 / 10 10 20 60 Laredo 75 90 75 97 / 20 20 30 10 Alice 74 87 75 92 / 30 20 20 30 Rockport 76 85 76 87 / 10 10 10 40 Cotulla 75 88 75 95 / 20 20 30 20 Kingsville 76 85 75 90 / 30 20 20 30 Navy Corpus 78 85 78 87 / 30 20 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...WC/87