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000
FXUS61 KCTP 250256
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1056 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight and
Friday morning, with high pressure providing dry and mostly
sunny conditions. Clouds increase late Friday leading to a
chance of showers Friday night and into the weekend before it
turns much warmer for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cloud cover is a steadily decreasing, but still a little too
slowly. Dry, cold air is punching in from NY and should help
temps get to freezing where we have the warning up. The expected
frost for the wrn highlands is in jeopardy if we can`t shake
those clouds. But, we`ll continue all flags as is with the
expectation that the clouds will continue to diminish across the
board. The SHRA have fizzled to nothing over the E, as expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chilly/cold start Thursday followed by mostly sunny conditions
allowing temps to warm into the mid 50s to around 60F. Very dry
air/below normal pwats ~0.20 inches combined with HREF ens min
and mixed Td sounding signal suggests a floor for minRH as low
as 10-15% across the northern tier. The abnormally dry air and
favorable radiational cooling conditions will support renewed
frost/freeze concerns tomorrow night into AM Friday. This risk
is highlighted in the HWO.

The sfc high strengthens to +2SD or ~1035mb as it drifts over
interior New England to Long Island by 12Z Saturday. Rain free
wx conditions will continue through the end of the week/Friday
with sun mixing with high clouds and max temps trending warmer
into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Showers along a warm front are likely to reach western PA by
daybreak Saturday based on latest operational model/ens
consensus. No frost/freeze concerns for Friday night into AM
Saturday with increasing clouds and fcst lows 38-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Late evening update holds very few changes to the long term.
Have kept the forecast very consistent with a very warm period
coming up.

Prev...
The weekend appears somewhat unsettled, with a warm front
arriving Saturday and warm sector struggling to overspread
central PA. It won`t be raining all the time, but a couple of
showers are likely on Saturday with a t-storm possible on
Sunday.

Upper ridging should eventually win out by early next week,
allowing for drier wx and much warmer temps with highs surging
through the 70s and perhaps topping 80F across the south on
Sunday. The warmest day of the extended period will be Monday as
temperatures soar into the 80s areawide. A bit humid as well
with fcst Td around 60F. This could support overnight lows near
record levels next week (near 60F).

Precipitation will be tough to come by in the extended period
without much gulf moisture sourcing. Decaying systems that bring
severe weather to the Plains will struggle to stay together and
7-day precipitation forecasts show very little rainfall across
southeast PA through the middle of next week with amounts only
approaching 0.75" in northwest PA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A northwesterly flow continues to gust 15-20 kts this evening.
Borderline IFR/MVFR cigs were observed across NW PA (BFD), with
borderline MVFR/VFR cigs down the western highlands into JST
and predominantly VFR conds elsewhere.

JST should see cigs drop to solidly MVFR overnight, while the
IFR cigs at BFD are expected to eventually scatter out. Expect
predominantly VFR conds to persist at the other central PA TAF
sites overnight. Wind gusts will diminish, although a light
northerly sfc flow should persist in most areas.

Skies will clear areawide on Thursday, with widespread VFR conds
and a light northeasterly sfc flow of 5-10 kts expected.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...Predominantly VFR conds under high pressure.

Fri night-Sat...Patchy rain developing from west to east.

Sun...Isold SHRA/TSRA possible.

Mon...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ004-005-
010-011-017>019-045-046-049>053.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ024>028-
056-057-059.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Dangelo/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego