134
FNUS71 KCTP 030912
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Elbow Unit 2...Silvix
National Weather Service State College PA
512 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on May 03.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions through this evening followed by an increasing
chance for rain overnight. Cloudy and noticeably cooler to start
the weekend with periods of rain into Sunday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 72.
Min Humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 15 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................16 to 37.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  42  50  52  53  54  62  70  79  74  70  66
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  53  54  57  60  63  67  69  71  72  72  72
RH................  71  71  67  62  58  50  49  47  46  48  48
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  5   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8   8   9
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   11  10  10  10  10  10  11  11  12  13
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8
Transp Wind Dir...  E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  7   12  12  12  12  12  13  13  13  14  14
LVORI.............  3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  16  16  24  24  24  31  31  31  37  37  37
Haines Index......  6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Increasing
                    chance of rain overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 47.
Max Humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13 to 20.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  68  69  70  72  73  75  77  78  80  81  81  82
Weather Cov.......                  SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type......                  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  70  68  65  62  60  58  56  54  53  52  51  49
RH................  53  54  60  65  67  72  74  77  77  77  80  83
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  9   9   10  11  12  11  11  10  10  10  9   10
20 FT Wind Gust...  13  13  14  16  16  17  17  14  14  14  14  14
Mix Hgt (kft).....  3.9 3.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp Wind Spd...  14  15  14  16  15  16  15  15  15  15  14  14
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
ADI...............  20  20  20  14  14  14  17  17  17  13  13  13
Haines Index......  4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 53.
Min Humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing Height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................19 to 39.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  82  83  83  85  88  90  92  94  96  96  96  96
Weather Cov.......  CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather Type......  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  49  48  48  49  49  50  50  51  52  52  52  52
RH................  80  83  86  86  89  86  89  86  86  86  86  86
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  11  11  11
20 FT Wind Gust...  14  14  14  14  14  16  16  16  17  17  17  18
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp Wind Spd...  13  13  13  15  17  18  20  20  21  21  21  21
LVORI.............  3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI...............  19  19  19  31  31  31  39  39  39  37  37  37
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Steinbugl
Requested by...Shannon Henry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413058.0/CTP
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL shannon@silvixforestry.com