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000
FXUS65 KCYS 161019
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
419 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will increase again over areas along and east of the
  Laramie Range into the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect wind gusts
  in the 60 to 65 mph range. Numerous high wind warnings are in
  affect.

- Strong cold front associated with a large system across
  central Canada will bring much colder temperatures and the
  chance for lower elevation snows Wednesday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TOMORROW/...
Issued at 253 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Radar analysis shows an area of north to south moving
precipitation associated with the ongoing wrap-around moisture
associated the low pressure system moving east across Nebraska.
As the storm system continues to progress off to the east this
band will also move east and bring the rain to the I-25 corridor
in the next hour our so. This trend will continue until the
storm system moves far enough to the east and the band of
precipitation exits our area.

In the wake of the departing storm system strong wind energy on
the backside of the storm system will be pulled south across
much of SE Wyoming. Strong 700mb winds around 60 to 65 knots
will have minimal issues being transported down to the surface.
This is an unusual high wind event as the main wind vector will
be a north-northwest wind and will impact areas that normally
don`t see high wind gusts. High Wind Warnings were extended to
include Niobrara and Sioux counties. The wind component will be
the last impact from the exiting storm system and winds should
begin to diminish by sunset.

A quick ridge will move across the Front Range heading into
Wednesday and will bring a brief period of quiet weather before
the next storm begins to drop out of central Montana as it
pushes a strong surface cold front south into our region
Wednesday night. This will be the focal point for some rain/snow
showers before we transition to all snow showers as the CAA
begins to filter into the region and drops both surface
temperatures and snow levels across the region. We will need to
watch where this surface cold front stalls out and transitions
into a stationary boundary as this will impact the expected
snowfall accumulation impacts. Models are hinting at this
boundary getting caught up along the border and being pulled
back to the north and west across the south Laramie Range and
Foothills. This will need to be monitored going into Thursday
for potential winter weather highlights.

&&

.LONG TERM /tHURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Looking at unsettled and cooler weather for the long term forecast
as an active synoptic pattern brings a prolonged period of cloudier
and wetter conditions. The end of the long term may see the return
of warmer and drier weather.

With a broad trough continuing to sit over the northern tier of the
country, cooler and wetter weather will persist. Colder air from the
north will push further south into Colorado throughout the day
Thursday. 700 mb temperatures as cold as -10C will make it into the
CWA leading to below average temperatures through Saturday. During
this time, jet energy, moisture, and vorticity maxes from the edge
of the trough could spark some precipitation across the area. Both
the GFS and ECMWF have a similar set-up, although the ECMWF is on
the drier side. Did opt to follow PoPs more closely to the GFS, but
lowered PoPs below the NBM during the Thursday through Saturday
timeframe. Because of the cooler temperatures, it is likely that
much of the precipitation will fall as snow. Cannot rule out any
snow accumulations in the lower elevations, but most accumulation
will be in the high terrain.

Temperatures warm up for the beginning of next week with a ridge
building over western CONUS, pushing the cold air out of the region.
Temperatures on Sunday will return to about average for late April.
Temperatures continue to warm on Monday as warm air advection ushers
in 2C to 6C 700 mb temperatures. This will lead to highs a few
degrees above average. The deterministic GFS has dry conditions on
Sunday and Monday but the ECMWF has a shortwave moving across the
area that could bring some precipitation chances to the area Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Rain and snow showers will impact all terminals during the 06Z TAF
period. In addition to this, gusty winds will be present at all
terminals through the 06Z TAF period with all sites gusting between
35 and 50 kts. Conditions at the terminals will drop to MVFR as rain
showers move overhead and rain is blown around from the strong
winds. KLAR will likely be the only site to see snow showers, but
expect conditions at KLAR to drop to IFR under the heaviest snow
bands and as snow blows around in the strong winds. The surface low
pressure system will continue to move out of the area, leading to
decreasing shower chances with ceilings lifting and skies clearing
by the evening hours. Winds begin to subside late in the TAF
period.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ102.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ101.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ106>108.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for
     WYZ112-116.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ114.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ116>119.
NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
     evening for NEZ019>021-054-055.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...AM