Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261536
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1036 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather returns with no impacts through Easter weekend.

- An increase in clouds with a few sprinkles or flurries
  Wednesday.

- Unseasonably warm afternoons return Thursday through Easter
  Sunday.

- Elevated to critical wildfire danger Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

An upper level storm system had progressed eastward, with
clearing skies over western Kansas this morning. Some cloud
remained across central Kansas where temperatures were slightly
warmer due to limited radiational cooling. Surface high pressure
will build across the plains today and tonight. Meanwhile, an
upper level disturbance will approach the high plains by early
Wednesday, bringing some mid level cloud to far southwest
Kansas. Temperatures today will reach into the mid to upper 40s,
with coolest highs around 40 along I-70. Snow cover could have
some limited impact on temperature; but most of it should have
melted by late afternoon, especially given that amounts on the
level were only in the 1 to 2 inch range (drifts of 3-4 inches
were observed in some locations). After a rapid drop during the
evening, temperatures late tonight could be held up by
increasing cloud at places like Elkhart and Liberal, while
locations farther east experience strong radiational cooling.
Expect lows in the teens to lower 20s in central Kansas, with
warmer lows in the mid 20s farther southwest at Elkhart and
Liberal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The aforementioned upper level trough will bring some mid level
cloud and possibly a shower or two to southern sections
Wednesday. The lack of downslope flow and cold start, along with
some cloud, will keep temperatures from recovering above the
50-55 range in the afternoon. The mid level flow will become
more zonal by Thursday, resulting in south to southwest low
level flow and much warmer weather. Expect highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s Thursday, and upper 70s to lower 80s Friday. A
weak disturbance moving across the northern plains could shunt a
weak cold front through the area by Saturday, keeping highs in
the 60s and 70s as opposed to 70s and 80s. The same is true for
Sunday, with warmest temperatures along the Oklahoma state line
and coolest along I-70.

A large upper level storm system will take shape over the
southwestern United States over the weekend and then move
eastward toward the plains early next week. However, upper
level troughing over the upper Midwest will create confluent mid
level flow across the center part of the country so that as the
western trough moves east, it will weaken. The ECMWF and CMCE
ensemble mean upper level patterns are still in good agreement,
with the vast majority of the respective ensemble members being
dry or mostly dry, with only a few members indicating light
amounts of rain up to a quarter of an inch or so. There are only
modest probabilities (30-50%) of rain amounts over .1". Cool
air will surge southward as usual ahead of this upper level
system, with highs falling back into the 60s for Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Good flying weather is expected for this TAF period, with VFR
continuing, scattered cirrus, and light winds. Light NW winds
today will trend light and variable this evening beneath a
surface ridge of high pressure, followed by the return of light
south winds Wednesday. An increase in midlevel clouds is
expected Wednesday associated with a weak shortwave. There may
be a sprinkle or snow flurry in the vicinity of GCK/DDC/LBL
daylight Wednesday, but there will be no impacts on aviation.
Only included a VCSH mention at LBL after 15z Wed.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner


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