Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000
FXUS63 KDDC 112300
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-record to record high temperatures over the weekend with
highs into the lower 90s across at least the southern third of
the DDC forecast area.
- Severe weather event, possibly significant, late Monday into
Monday Night as a powerful spring storm system moves out of
New Mexico across the Central Plains.
- Much colder air likely developing late next week following the
early week storm system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Today`s water vapor imagery and upper air analysis showed western
Kansas in a northwest flow pattern as a deep trough axis pulls away
from the central CONUS. A fairly low amplitude ridge in the mid-
upper troposphere will advance across the Rockies and adjacent
western Great Plains through the Short Term period, and this will
result in a surface wind shift from the north we are seeing
today...to a southerly wind on Friday as a leeside trough deepens
across Colorado. By late Friday and Friday Night, southwesterly flow
aloft will impinge on the southern Rockies, further deepening the
low level leeside trough. Temperatures will really begin to respond
to the pattern change Friday with lower 80s likely south of the
Arkansas River with some mid 80s along the Oklahoma Panhandle
line.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
An active Long Term period is in store, which will begin with near-
record or record high temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Our official
forecast for Saturday highs is 89 degrees with a latest NBM
Probability of Exceeding 92+ at around 40%, which would be a tie for
the April 13th record high at DDC. Sunday probs for exceeding 92+
are a little higher given slightly warmer low level thermal fields,
and our latest official forecast will show a Sunday high of 91.
The main focus of this period will be Monday and Monday Night,
though, as a significant storm system will develop out across the
Southern Rockies and mature as it moves northeast across the western
Great Plains Monday Night. This system will draw up substantial Gulf
of Mexico moisture, and on Monday a large region of convective
instability will develop with latest surface dewpoint forecast from
Ensemble means showing widespread lower to mid 60s across much of
Oklahoma into at least the eastern half of Kansas. The northern
reach of lower 60s dewpoints is not so much in question as is how
far northwest into our southwest Kansas lower 60s dewpoints will
reach. It will take a period of easterly component low level winds
to bring 60s dewpoints deeper into southwest Kansas, and if this
does indeed happen (which the ECMWF EPS means are hinting at), then
numerous severe storms will be likely across at least the eastern
half of our forecast area. As it is, SPC does already have a 15%
convective outlook as far west as the Highway 83 corridor. The 30%
outlook, which is a high-end 4+ day outlook, covers the mid-section
and western portion of Oklahoma into a small part of far south
central Kansas. It should be noted that the EPS (of the three
ensemble systems) has now become the slower/deeper of the ensemble
systems, and if the other two ensemble systems (NCEP GEFS and
Canadian GEPS) favor slower and deeper solution, then the
afternoon/evening dryline position will likely be farther west and
the 30% outlook may expand/shift closer to southwest Kansas. This is
something we will be watching very closely, for obvious reasons, as
this could very well become a high-impact severe weather event
including our NWS DDC forecast area...as pattern recognition, time
of year, CAPE/Shear space all point to long-lived significant severe
storms, including "strong supercells", which is the verbiage our
colleagues at SPC used in their Day 4-8 outlook earlier this
morning.
Deeper into the Long Term period, there are growing indications of a
cold wave developing up north that may give western Kansas one last
little bit of winter-like temperatures with some preliminary NBM
probs of 40s for highs 10-20% Friday and Saturday April 19-20.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites throughout
the period. Light and variable winds are expected to persist through
early Friday morning as surface high pressure moves southeast across
the Western High Plains into north Texas.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-
046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson