Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 282323
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper system will bring mixed precipitation and the
  potential for up to around 3 inches of snow from Friday
  afternoon into midday Saturday.

- A storm system will move across the Midwest early next week.
  The system continues to trend farther south, with a low chance
  (10-20%) for winter weather impacts for southern portions of
  the Northland, primarily in NW WI.

- Gradual warming this weekend through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Rest of today:

Sunny skies have developed across most of the Northland as high
pressure settles into the region, with the exception being
across the tip of the MN Arrowhead where very light
snow/flurries had lingered into the early afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures are topping out in the upper 20s to mid 30s have
been accompanied by westerly winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph, but
will quickly weaken and become light this evening.

Tonight:

High-level cloud cover gradually builds into the region tonight
ahead of an approaching clipper system to our west. While the
night looks quiet for the most part, there is a signal for some
patchy fog tonight into early Friday morning from central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, and up to around Duluth. The
probability for visibilities to be reduced to around a mile
remain around 30% or less at this time.

Friday - Saturday:

Cloud cover continues to increase across the region on Friday
and Saturday as the clipper moves east across northern ND and
northern MN. Precipitation chances begin earliest across central
and north-central Friday afternoon and then expand eastwards
across the Northland Friday evening into Friday night before
exiting the Northland from west to east on Saturday morning into
early afternoon. Model thermal profiles continue to support a
mix of wintry precipitation with this system in the form of
rain, snow, freezing rain, possibly some brief sleet. The
potential for freezing rain/sleet would be primarily Friday
evening into early Saturday morning when temperatures are below
freezing before warming above freezing again by late Saturday
morning across the Northland. A loss of cloud ice on the back
side of this system Friday night into Saturday morning could
also lead to freezing drizzle, as well.

Overall, the snow amounts trended slightly upwards for portions
of northern Minnesota and the North Shore where precipitation
will primarily be in the form of snow. Amounts range from a
dusting across the southern tier of counties in our CWA to
around 0.5-1.5 inches around the US Highway 2 corridor to 1 to
3 inches north of US Highway 2. Localized amounts slightly over
3 inches cannot be ruled out along the North Shore due to
easterly winds off of Lake Superior into the higher terrain of
the North Shore leading to a bump in forecast snowfall due to
lake and terrain enhancement. Ice accumulations are primarily
confined to the US Highway 2 corridor and areas south where
generally a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch of
accretions are possible. The freezing drizzle could lead to some
very light glazes of ice into northern Minnesota, however,
depending on whether or not loss of ice crystals aloft occurs
there Friday night.

Late Sunday - Early Next Week System:

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on a Colorado Low
developing late Sunday, with fairly good agreement in the track
of the low cutting eastwards across southern portions of the
Midwest from Sunday night through late Monday. The trend of
guidance sliding this system farther south of the Northland
continues, so while precipitation probabilities of 10-30% get
into central MN into NW WI late Sunday through Monday night,
precipitation amounts have continued to trend southward. NBM
probabilities for greater than 1" of snow with this early week
system only look to be around 20% or less for southern portions
of the Northland, highest over NW WI. Given forecast
temperatures Sunday into early next week, this precipitation
would likely be in the form of a rain/snow mix.

Warming Temperatures into Next Week:

We see temperatures gradually turn warmer this weekend into next
week, with highs warming from the upper 30s to mid 40s this
weekend to widespread 40s by mid next week. There is even some
potential for some 50s to creep into the Northland late next
week as a ridge builds overhead, but a lingering snowpack may
lead to forecast temperatures needing to be lowered a few
degrees until the snow melts completely. Some lingering light
precipitation is possible into mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Fog chances
across the Northland have increased slightly, but confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAF, as it is more likely that
the moisture will frost out. If fog does form, the terminals
most likely to be affected would be BRD, HYR, and DLH. MVFR
ceilings and frozen precipitation will affect terminals as we
near 00Z Saturday as a clipper moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Westerly wind gusts up to 20 to 30 mph continue over western
Lake Superior the rest of today before quickly weakening this
evening and tonight, though some elevated waves may linger
across portions of the South Shore into mid-evening. Small Craft
Advisories expire at 7 PM CDT, except for Duluth to the Outer
Apostle Islands where 2-5 foot waves will linger the longest.
Low pressure moves east across the region Friday afternoon through
Saturday, which will likely lead to strong and gusty northeast
winds in the southwestern arm of Lake Superior and the need
for additional Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>144-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ145>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Rothstein


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