495
FXUS63 KDMX 062342
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
642 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms sweep across Iowa this evening and
  overnight. Damaging wind and perhaps a few tornadoes are the
  primary hazards. Pockets of locally heavy rain are also
  possible.

- Additional storm chances on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Upcoming forecast dominated by negatively tilted system lifting
through the region which eventually becomes a broad upper low across
the northern Plains. Low level southeast flow has intensified
today as moisture returns into the state with an extensive
cellular cloud field across central and western Iowa. Meanwhile,
dry line passing through the Plains is initiating strong to
severe convection across Kansas up into South Dakota currently.
Models indicate this development continues through the afternoon
with a long line of storms approaching western Iowa by 00Z.
Main considerations into this evening and overnight is the CAPE
which remains in a relatively narrow corridor. As with previous
discussion, the best CAPE profile remain in western and southern
Iowa into tonight where moisture return is most robust.
Eventually, the convection will outrun the best instability with
the cold pool likely surging ahead of the main convection
leading to a decrease in intensity as it heads east across Iowa.
However, prior to that time, the storms will exist in a
moderately unstable environments with MUCAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG
along with bulk in excess of 45kts into tonight. Effective SRH
values also remain greater than 200-300 m2/s2 across the
southwest. Damaging wind gusts remain the greatest threat as the
line accelerates east into Iowa along with the potential for a
few tornadoes in the west and south where line surges are
perpendicular to a WSW 0-3KM shear vector. At this time, the
line appears to reach our west around 8-9pm and exits the east
around 3-4 am. In addition, moisture transport remains rather
robust on a strong low level jet with rainfall in the west half
of Iowa generally around 1- 1.5" or so. This may lead to new or
renewed river flooding.

Much of Tuesday appears relatively quiet as subsidence builds in
behind the departing line of convection.  However, a few showers are
possible by the afternoon in northern Iowa where weak forcing exists
by afternoon ahead of a weak wave passing through the state. Focus
then turns Wednesday into early Thursday as the upper low approaches
Iowa with renewed forcing and an increasing threat for showers and a
few storms near a weak surface low which passes through northern
Iowa.  Models output some moderate rainfall across northern Iowa
during this time as the system tracks slowly east.  Otherwise,
cooler air arrives for later in the work week with northerly winds.
One final upper system passes northeast of the state late Friday
into Saturday helping to reinforce the cooler air into the state
early in the weekend although warm advection returns by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Overcast skies moving in from the west to sink to MVFR ahead of
showers and storms that will impact all terminals through the
night. Severe weather possible for especially KDSM and KOTM with
gusty winds associated with the line of storms. Have adjusted
times of TSRA period to when storms are expected to reach each
site. IFR cigs to follow with some showers immediately behind
the line, clearing to VFR after 12z. Gusty southeast winds to
ease behind the line and become southwesterly. Winds gusts up to
25kts will return after 18z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Jimenez