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000
FXUS63 KDVN 111804
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
104 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

,,,18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase later this morning into the afternoon
  with isolated thunderstorms also possible. THe highest
  chances of rain are over northwest Illinois. One to two tenths
  of an inch of rain are possible.

- It will be breezy today through Friday with northwest winds of
  10 to 20 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH.

- A warming trend will begin this weekend and continue into
  early next week with temperatures well above normal especially
  Sunday through Tuesday.

- We continue to watch another storm system forecast to move
  into the area early next week and bring chances of rain
  showers and thunderstorms to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

At 3 AM a cold stretches from a surface low in southwestern
Lake Superior southward into east central Iowa. There are
diminishing rain showers along and ahead of the cold in east
central Iowa. Temperatures ranged from 48 degrees at Clinton to
54 degrees at Keokuk.

A shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward and be
absorbed into a broad trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley today. As this wave moves across the area, models show
instability developing across the area with cooler air aloft.
CAPE values through the day range from 200 to 400 J/KG.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
develop from northern Iowa southeastward into eastern Iowa,
northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri through the day.
However, CAMS do not show much activity in the area until late
afternoon. This may be caused by a lack of low level moisture
across the area. The forecast is a combination of CAMs and
broader scale models. Models have not been handling this system
very well so this is a lower confidence forecast for rainfall
today.

A cool front will move across the area this morning. Northwest
winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 mph will develop as
the pressure gradient tightens across the area behind this front.
There will be a slight reduction in winds speeds overnight with
gusts up to 25 mph. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday
with high temperatures ranging from 60 to 65 degrees. Low
temperatures on Thursday nigh will range from 40 to 44 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

An amplified but progressive 500 MB pattern will continue
through the period. As the system continues to depart a tight
pressure gradient will keep breezy winds into the day on Friday
before easing some Friday night. Upper level ridging is forecast
to build into the Plains (flattening into the weekend). A
warming trend is still expected into the weekend with increasing
warm air advection and winds turning more southerly. Highs
climb into the 70s on Saturday and by Sunday NAEFS suggests 850
mb temperatures in the 90-97.5th percentiles of climatology with
highs at the surface forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Above normal temperatures look to continue into the early start
of the week, though temperature spread among ensemble guidance
does begin to increase quite a bit heading further into the
period.

Model guidance has continued to show a dynamic upper level low
moving into the Plains on Monday, developing a strong surface
low that generally tracks northeastward across the region
Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble solutions highlight a stronger
signal for showers and storms across the area during this time
period. There still remain some differences in details such as
timing and storm track, resulting in lower confidence in impacts
at this time. However, it will be a timeframe to monitor for
the potential of strong to severe storms. Still plenty of time
this far out, so be sure to stay up to date on the latest
forecast as details are refined in the coming days. Models are
also showing a strong pressure gradient across the area Monday
into Tuesday with strong southerly winds develop across the area
especially on Tuesday. This storm system is still several days
but it is worth paying attention to the forecast for early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Mainly a VFR TAF cycle through Friday morning, unless a site
manages to get hit by a developing sctrd to isolated shower or
even thunderstorm(20-40% chance especially at CID/DBQ/MLI) this
afternoon into the evening period. An incoming wave aloft will
generate these in the afternoon heating, with a more developed
storm or even shower possibly producing small hail, gusty winds
and MVFR VSBY`s as they pass by. Clouds should mainly remain at
VFR levels unless temporarily lowered to MVFR in a heavier
shower, and ongoing increase in the sfc pressure gradient will
continue to make for brisk northwesterly sfc winds gusting up to
30 KTs at times through late Friday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...12