Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
675 ACUS03 KWNS 060731 SWODY3 SPC AC 060730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 $$