490
FXUS63 KEAX 061728
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather expected tonight as squall line moves through
  the region. Strong straight-line winds and brief tornado are
  expected to be the main severe hazards tonight.

- Visibility associated with dense fog this morning is expected to
improve by late morning.

- Additional severe weather possible Wednesday afternoon with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Active weather picture today with significant outbreak of severe
weather expected across the central and southern plains today with
strong upper low exiting the four corners region building into the
central plains.

As of 08Z... Complex of storms associated with a
departing upper low across southeastern Missouri building east into
the Tennessee Valley. Lingering low level moisture from the
departing system leading to some fog across the region. Dense fog
has begun to develop across eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
Models suggest this will likely expand prior to sunrise, and have
coordinated a dense fog advisory with neighboring offices for the KC
metro and areas south and west.  There is the potential dense fog
advisory may need to be expanded farther north, but with less
moisture, confidence is not as high and have left these locations
out of the advisory for the time being.

For today, the strong upper trough across the four corners region is
expected to lift northeast towards the Central Plains.  Warm sector
is expected to expand today as warm front lifts north/east across
the central plains.  North of the warm front, easterly wind and
stratus will be fairly prevalent. Have shaved expectations for
forecast highs today, but think there could be a late day surge of
warming especially south of the warm front.  CAMs suggest storms
could develop as early as 15-16 Z across southern Nebraska/northern
Kansas along a dry line. These storms are expected to develop in a
strongly sheared environment, with effective shear of 40-45 knots.
These storms will continue to build farther east through the
afternoon hours feeding off increasing instability farther east.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop into a squall line,
shifting into the immediate region after 00Z tonight. Strongly
sheared environment with bulk shear values of 30-40 knots and MU
CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg will continue to support
squall line across the region. With the strong shear, potential
for embedded supercells within the line to lead to enhanced
areas of severe weather. Downdraft CAPE across the region
remains a widespread 1-2K suggesting the potential of strong
damaging winds with the line as it works into the region. The
line appears to be fairly progressive potentially limiting the
flash flood potential, but with mature MCS including large
trailing stratiform region, could see rainfall amounts of 1-2".
With lowered flash flood guidance given the wet antecedent
conditions, could see some renewed flood threats overnight.

Clearing skies are expected behind the complex of storms overnight
leading to a much quieter day across the region on Tuesday. However,
the upper trough across the western US is expected to lift into the
northern US where it remains cutoff from the upper flow. A strong
short wave wrapping around the low is expected to rotate into the
region on Wednesday afternoon leading to a renewed threat of
thunderstorms across the region. While low level moisture looks to
be somewhat limited ahead of the meso-low, could see surface dew
points approach 60 degrees and CAPE values approach 1000 J/kg.  With
strongly sheared environment, could see storms develop that would be
capable of damaging winds and large hail.

Late this week, the upper trough gradually finds its way to the east
with north/northwesterly flow prevailing leading to cooler and drier
conditions across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR conditions are expected to last through the afternoon. Winds
will be out of the SE around 9-12 kts, with gusts as high as 25 kts
during the evening hours. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms
are expected around 03Z to 07Z. Clouds behind the line of storms
will gradually begin clearing around 08Z-09Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Collier/Hayes