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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 13N. Combined seas of about
15 ft are ongoing in the plume of gale force winds, but seas in
the 8-12 ft seas range extend to 10N and 101W. Ongoing high
pressure north of the area will continue to funnel these gales
through Sat morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze late
Sat, and finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should drop
below 12 ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine
interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the
weekend should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take
the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over
the affected waters.

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 05N77W to 05N81W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N82W to 07N118W to 03N132W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 10N between
84W and 102W, and from 05N to 12N between 109W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

Outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle variable winds
persist across the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate
SE winds along the northern and central Gulf of California. Combined
seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California with a component of NW
swell, 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, developing
low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will force
fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California late
today. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will be moving across
the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun. In the
wake of the cold front, building high pressure should cause fresh
to strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun
night into Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of
Nicaragua downwind to about 92W. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore
waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas over these two offshore
zones are in the 5-9 ft range. The ridge over the Caribbean also
influences moderate gap winds in the Gulf of Panama. Light and
variable winds prevail across the rest of the Central American
and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the Papagayo region,
seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Hazy conditions observed along
and just offshore northern Central America are due to mostly
smoke produced by agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up
over Central America will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
today, and near gale tomorrow night and Sat night over the Gulf
of Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun into
Tue, but fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through
early next week. The same pressure gradient will cause fresh to
strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama tomorrow night into
Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the
next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 20N and west of
128W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
mainly north of 07N and west of 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 9
ft in this region, with a component of NW swell. Gentle to
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next
couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into
Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of
25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas
should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion
area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to
N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching
as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell
will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell
will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of
115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will
reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will
reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Ramos