574
FXUS64 KEPZ 012344
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
544 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

A fairly persistent large scale weather pattern across the
Southwestern U.S. will keep a fetch of very dry air over the
Borderland for the rest of the week and through the weekend. Day
to day temperatures will be quite steady, and average warmer than
normal. Skies will typically be mostly clear, with plenty of
sunshine. After a breezy day today, winds will slacken, with only
occasional breezes in the afternoons through Friday, but then
pick back up for the weekend and early next week. The primary
concern, due to weather, over the next seven days will be
compounding warmth and dryness, leading to drying of vegetation
across the region, and fire weather conditions elevating to
critical this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

A low-amplitude progressive wavy pattern will persist over the
Western U.S. during this 7-day forecast period. This means
generally a quasi-zonal pattern with passing minor ridges and
troughs. With the pattern favoring flat, the troughs, with their
associated moisture and dynamics will pass well to our north. For
our forecast area, with will mean a continuation of the our
stretch or precip-less weather. We have almost no precip, of any
kind, in our forecast (with the exception of the east slopes of
the SACs for Sunday). A deep dry environment will mean few clouds,
plenty of sunshine, dry surface layers (low RH), warmer than
normal temperatures, and deep mixing. Daily max/min temps should
run pretty consistent from day to day, with only 2-4 degree
changes through the period. Winds will slacken off after this
evening as the currently upper trough passing to our north,
crosses the Rockies, in the the Northern and Central Plains. We
will see a 3 day stretch of generally light winds (for the season)
with light afternoon breezes.

Friday night through Saturday morning a front pushes in from the
Plains over our NE and E zones. This does back in some Gulf
moisture into the SACS, but it will be very shallow, and stay
only briefly into the day on Saturday. We do have minor POPs and
precip in for the eastern areas of the SACs and Guad escarpment of
Otero Co., but the really don`t believe we will see any realistic
risk of showers or storms.

The next Pacific trough approaches Sunday, and that will be
reflected with and upward trend in winds as we see stronger winds
aloft mix down in tighter mid-level gradients, and good mix down,
and some lee surface troughing through central NM into Chihuahua,
MX. Sunday could bring winds requiring a Wind Advisory. Monday and
Tuesday follow with very similar winds that will border on
additional Wind Advisories. There will almost certainly be RFWs
posted for these three days, given RH in the 5-10 percent range.
The associated trough swings through our area on Monday, but it
looks to pass with insufficient moisture to produce any precip.

Beyond Tuesday, it appears we settle back into a flat zonal
pattern through late week, with more seasonally dry and warm
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Gusty winds
near 25kts continue this evening out of W-SW before subsiding
overnight, except for KELP which stays breezy due to downslope
flow. Lighter gusts to upper teens return tomorrow afternoon.
Other than FEW250, mainly SKC expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Fire weather season is in full swing, and the next 7 days ahead
will ramp up those conditions from traditional, to elevated, to
critical. We will continue with a deep and dry westerly flow
pattern that ensures our region will remain warm and dry.

The large-scale pattern will be low in amplitude, with the storm
track positioned well north. This means only small changes in
weather elements day to day. Temperatures will be largely steady,
with only small day to day changes. Each day should have mild
nighttime temps, and warmer than normal temps. Our RH will be
pathetically low, overnight recoveries will be poor and struggle
to rise above 30-35%. Daily minRH will be largely below 10%, and
as low as 5% for most afternoons. The warm and dry air will mean
deep instability and good mixing aloft. Winds will be moderate to
low for the season through Saturday, with generally light
overnights and mornings, and marginally, occasionally breezy
afternoons.

Sunday through Tuesday will be the time frame that we need to be
focused on as a slow passing Pacific trough moves across the
Western U.S. We will see increasing winds, while still being
exceedingly dry. We are pretty certain these 3 days will be Red
Flag Warning days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               54  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               51  83  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  60  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              46  75  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                52  86  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             55  88  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               53  78  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  86  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            49  83  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  83  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                52  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  75  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  72  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 43  70  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  45  76  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  82  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  83  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  78  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               48  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  47  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  82  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  50  82  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson