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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 140526
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1126 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Warm and breezy weather will continue for Sunday. On Monday, a
system will bring strong winds, high to extreme fire danger, and
areas of blowing dust. By Tuesday, we resume a warm and breezy
regime that will finish out the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

UL ridging is in place this afternoon across NM and far west TX.
Some high clouds are riding in the from the south, but for the
most part it is a fairly quiet and warm day with just some
afternoon breeziness. We can expect much the same for Sunday as
the ridge gradually translates east ahead of a potent UL low
presently off the CA coast.

This low will become a major play for our weather on Monday. As it
swings east across UT and CO. This path will place the main 110+
kt jet right over Southern NM by afternoon. Meanwhile, at the
surface, a ~987 mb low will form over NE CO while a Pacific cold
front will move west to east across our area, helping to pack the
gradient. With max daytime heating, mixing looks to reach around
600 mb, so all the ingredients are coming together for a rather
windy day. Looking at NBM 75th percentile for gusts, which often
is a good guide for top gusts, a large area is over 50 knots.
Therefore I have upgraded most of the existing high wind watch to
a warning. Some less typically windy areas I switched to an
advisory while adding most of the Gila as well to either an
advisory or warning. Within the advisory, wind gusts of 50-55 MPH
looks likely, while warning areas will see gusts of 60-70 MPH. The
highest gusts will be in the mountains of the Sacs and east slope
areas. With the strong winds, blowing dust looks like a pretty
good bet. The one thing that may help with visibility issues is
the deep mixing may reduce concentrations. Also, it will be very
dry, so fire danger will be high to extreme. Outdoor burning is
discouraged.

Quasi-zonal flow will be the rule for the remainder of the period.
This will keep us warm, breezy, and very dry each afternoon.
Models do show a backdoor cold front trying to enter from the east
on Friday. Guidance is struggling with how far west this air mass
will progress and subsequently how much cooler it will get Friday
and into the weekend. This air mass does have an increase in
moisture associated with it. Both the GFS and Euro show a weak s/w
approaching from AZ on Saturday, and the Euro allows for some
spotty precip, but the GFS is completely dry. NBM shows some
mentionable POPs for Otero and Hudspeth Counties as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-FEW250...with
increasinngSCT200 BKN250 after 18Z. Surface winds west AOB 8 knots.
Winds increasing again after 18Z to southwest 13-18G28 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

Very dry conditions continue for Sunday with poor overnight
recoveries expected in the morning. Winds will top out around 15
MPH. Vent rates will range very good to excellent. This will help
dry fuels, especially across the Sacramento Mountains.

Fire concerns increase dramatically as a potent upper-level storm
passes to our north on Monday. It will bring strong 20-foot winds
to the area ranging 30 to 40 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH,
especially in the mountains. These strong winds will combine with
min RH values in the single digits in the lowlands and lower to
middle teens in the Sacramento Mountains. RFTI values will range 6
to 8 in the lowlands and 6 to 7 in the Sacs, leading to critical
to extremely critical fire concerns. The fire weather watch has
been upgraded to a warning for all but the Gila. In the Gila,
winds will be well over critical thresholds, but higher min RH
values and wetter fuels will preclude red flag issuance. With the
strong winds, vent rates will be excellent area wide.

Elevated fire conditions will continue Tuesday onward. Each
afternoon will feature single-digit min RH values with 20-foot
winds topping out 10 to 15 MPH. At this time, no wide spread critical
conditions are anticipated for Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  58  85  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            54  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               52  85  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               50  81  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  58  43  54 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    48  82  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  72  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   46  82  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                44  80  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       55  83  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                49  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               52  77  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   53  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             50  82  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           56  82  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            47  80  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    46  83  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 51  82  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                48  80  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  74  50  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  69  47  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 42  68  45  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  40  75  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  80  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                43  80  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             39  72  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   41  76  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  78  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               44  74  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  44  76  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   44  80  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           45  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               46  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ419>421.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ418-422>424.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.

NM...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ403-
     406>411-414>417-425>427.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ401-404-405-
     428-429.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ111>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers