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000
FXUS64 KEWX 190755
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mostly cloudy skies are prevailing across South-Central Texas
overnight with a mix of high and low clouds. Should see
northeasterly flow at the surface move into the area today and this
in combination with ample cloud cover should keep highs today in the
70s to lower 80s for most locations with some upper 80s possible in
the southwestern CWA. Think most of the area will remain rain-free
today with little forcing for ascent over the area. Can`t completely
rule out a stray shower with the south winds overrunning the
northerly surface winds but overall chances are low. For the evening
hours, the focus will return to the western CWA near the Rio Grande
for additional strong to severe storms possibly developing west of
the river moving east into the CWA in the late evening hours. This
is supported by several of the 00z high-res models. Can`t rule out a
strong storm with this activity.

A weak disturbance will begin to bring some more widespread chances
for showers and storms early Saturday morning and continuing into
Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the activity will likely be in the
northern CWA, but rain chances will be in place for the entire CWA.
NBM guidance is much higher than what the high-res models would
support especially for locations south of the Hill Country. Undercut
the PoPs slightly but showers embedded in southerly flow just above
the surface will be possible. There may be enough instability in the
southern CWA Saturday afternoon as the front pulls north a bit to
create some low risk for a strong to severe storm. The latest Day 2
outlook from SPC shows a marginal risk and that seems reasonable.
Locally heavy rains will also be possible that could lead to
possible minor flooding concerns as rainfall amounts could be in
excess of 2 inches in some places.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An upper level shortwave moves overhead as the cold front continues
its trek south Saturday night. Forcing by these features of an
unseasonably moist airmass with PWs up to 200% percent of normal for
this time of year will yield widespread showers with training of
cells making for locally heavy rains. WPC has our area in levels 1
to 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rains leading to flooding. However,
expect any flooding will be minor and of the urban and small stream
variety from rainfall up to 2 inches or so. Instability and shear
should allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. SPC has our
area in a 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms. The strongest storms
could produce hail and gusty winds.

The upper level shortwave moves off to the east while the cool and
somewhat drier airmass deepens ending the showers and thunderstorms
early Sunday morning. However, under mostly cloudy skies with breezy
northerly winds, cold advection leads to a chilly day by late April
standards on Sunday with well below temperatures expected.

A zonal flow takes hold by Monday and continues next week. Southerly
lower flow returns leading to a warming and moistening trend.
Temperatures warm to above normal by mid week. A low level jet and
possible weak impulses aloft encountering a deepening moist layer
may allow for some showers by mid week, however chances are
currently too to mention.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions continue but we should see MVFR ceilings develop soon
with possible IFR conditions by the morning hours. Conditions will be
slow to improve tomorrow as conditions remain overcast. Will watch
for some possible thunderstorm development closer to DRT tomorrow
evening and will mention VCTS to cover that threat for now.
Otherwise, winds through the period will be light becoming
northeasterly by tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  65  76  53 /   0  20  60  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  64  76  52 /  10  20  60  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     80  65  79  54 /  10  20  50  90
Burnet Muni Airport            73  62  70  50 /   0  30  80  90
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  69  81  60 /  20  50  70  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  64  71  50 /   0  30  70 100
Hondo Muni Airport             83  66  80  55 /  10  30  60  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        79  64  78  53 /  10  20  50  90
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  68  79  55 /  20  10  50  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  67  78  55 /  10  20  50  90
Stinson Muni Airport           82  67  80  57 /  10  20  50  90

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...04
Aviation...29