National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KFGF 162001
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
301 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions continue through this afternoon. Gusts up to
  50 mph can be expected within portions of west-central and
  northwest Minnesota until around 7 PM. There is a 20 percent
  chance for gusts higher than 55 mph particularly under heavier
  showers and weak thunderstorms.

- Cooler air mass moving into the region will bring a medium
  (60%) chance for snow Wednesday night through Friday, along
  with high (80%) chance for sub-freezing temperatures late week
  into the weekend. The chance for widespread impacts from snow
  is less than 10%, however.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong upper/mid level low and deepening attendant surface low
moving through the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
continues drive a stout low level jet over our area out of the
southeast. Winds at 850 mb around 50-60 kt are nosing in from
the southeast over west-central Minnesota into the Red River
Valley. Overall, the atmosphere isn`t very supportive of
transfer these winds aloft to the surface, but increased winds
gusting to 50 mph are being transfered to the surface near the
west-central Minnesota region with the help of downsloping off
of higher elevation highs of lake country. This environment and
low level jet will remain in place this afternoon until around
sunset before winds aloft ease as deepening of the low ceases
and moves east. Within the axis of the low level jet is
continued moisture and weak convection. This may allow gusts
higher than 55 mph to reach the surface at times between 3 PM -
7 PM in west-central Minnesota.

With moisture advecting into our area around the northern half
of the low, continued waves of light to moderate rainfall will
remain in the forecast. Some embedded convection is allowing
weak thunderstorms to make its way into portions of west-
central Minnesota this afternoon. An additional two tenths to
half an inch of rainfall is expected, with highest overall
amounts near the Devils Lake area as well as west-central
Minnesota area.

A larger upper level low in Canada will help push the Central
Plains/Upper Midwest low east of our area. Cooler air filtering
into the region behind the now exiting low along with residual
moisture and lift associated with the Canadian low will allow a
chance for precipitation to mix with or transition to snow as
early as Wednesday morning near the international border. These
chances of snow expand in coverage Wednesday night, Thursday,
and into Friday. While snow amounts are likely to be light, (80%
chance for amounts to reside between 0.1-2.0 inches), steep
lapse rates and weak convection may allow brief visibility
reductions under half a mile. Overall, the chance for widespread
wintertime impacts from snow amounts and rates is less than 10%.
Gusty winds will also be present through Friday, although at
this time the chance for advisory-level winds remains less than
10%.

With cooler air moving into the region, likely (80%) chance for
sub-freezing temperatures moves into our region during the
overnight and early morning hours Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Rain will continue across the area thorugh the night though dry
air has been eating away at some of the echos further into
central North Dakota. This will eventually spread north and east
tomorrow morning as rain clears towards tomorrow afternoon. Cigs
are a mix of VFR and MVFR with IFR in central North Dakota.
Tough forecast overall but expect winds to decrease tonight
around 23 to 02Z as gusts drop off and ceilings continue to
lower through the afternoon. A few vis reductions but mainly
above 3 miles except in heavier cores to 1-2 miles.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-015-
     016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT