026
FXUS65 KFGZ 010904
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
204 AM MST Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the
rest of the week. Windier, more unsettled weather returns late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With a shortwave passage to the north today,
slightly cooler and breezier conditions are expected today. Winds
won`t be too much to write home about, with peak afternoon gusts
likely in the 20-30 mph range. Downwind areas of the Kaibab
Plateau, Black Mesa, and Chuska Mountains will likely see the
strongest gusts, where gusts of 35-40 mph are possible. More
typical afternoon breezes winds ensue on Thursday, as high
pressure begins to gradually build back into Arizona for the
weekend. Gradually warming temperatures also return as a result.

By Sunday, a much stronger trough dives southward into the Great
Basin. Model guidance has come into a bit better agreement with the
track of the trough, which adds a bit more confidence to the
forecast. Given the track, the system will be fairly moisture
starved, so any precipitation looks to be limited. The areas most
likely to see any showers, will largely be the higher terrain of far
northern Arizona. The main focus with this system looks to be the
wind, with EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance showing a strong signal
towards winds in excess of 50 mph over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 01/06Z through Thursday 02/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Winds 10 kts or less overnight, increasing again after
16Z becoming southwest 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 02/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions
will persist with afternoon winds from the southwest 10-15 kts gusting
up to 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Look for dry conditions and
near average temperatures. Afternoon southwest winds 10-20 mph
gusting 20-30 mph on Wednesday, decreasing to southwest 10-15 mph
gusting up to 20 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between 10-20%
each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions continue. Southwest wind
gusts 10-20 mph are forecast for Friday, increasing to 20-30 mph
Saturday. During this time, minimum RH values will be around 10-20%.
On Sunday, a passing low pressure system will bring stronger
southwest winds, with a 60-90% chance of wind gusts above 40 mph.
While this system will likely bring little to no rainfall,
humidity may also increase, primarily along and south of the
Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff