Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220823
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
323 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 114 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/
/Friday and Saturday/

A low pressure center will move across North Texas this morning
and move into the ArkLaTex late in the day. As rainfall moves into
East Texas early, partial clearing is expected before wrap-around
stratus moves in from the north. Patchy fog will be possible for
any areas that clear out for more than an hour or so. Widespread
dense fog is not expected for the morning commute. The fog threat
will come to an end with the arrival of northerly winds and drier
air by 8-9AM.

Most of the area will start the day dry with only a few isolated
showers lingering near the Red River. A backdoor mid-level trough
should swing across the region today, developing scattered showers
late this morning and this afternoon. Rain chances are highest
east of I-35/35E and north of I-20, with little to no chance of
rain west of US-281. Weak instability will keep thunderstorm
chances below 10%. There should be quite the temperature gradient
this afternoon. Areas across eastern North Texas should remain
under wrap-around stratus all day with highs topping out in the
low 60s. In contrast, our far western counties will peak in the
mid 70s due to the stratus clearing out earlier in the day.

A reinforcing cold front will move through tonight and bring
cooler and drier air to the region. Most of North Texas will start
Saturday in the mid 40s while our Central Texas counties start in
the low 50s. The high pressure ridge associated with this airmass
will quickly move into East Texas with south flow returning by
Saturday evening. Saturday should be a nice day with highs in the
upper 60s/low 70s, dry air, partly cloudy skies and light winds.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night and Beyond/

The reinforcing cold front on Saturday will usher in a drier
airmass dropping surface dewpoints into the low to mid-50s along
the immediate Gulf Coast. As winds turn southerly in response to
pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies late Saturday into
Sunday, a period of return flow will begin ahead of the next
upper-level storm system. The degree of moisture return will play
a big part in the potential for severe weather in our forecast
area early next week. Isolated showers may develop across portions
of North Texas late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon on
the nose of greater theta-E advection.

By midday Sunday, a lead mid-level shortwave looks to eject over
the Southern Plains. Anomalously strong southerly winds will
increase to 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph at times Sunday into
Monday as a ~980 mb surface low develops over SE Colorado and
shifts east-northeastward. Current medium-range guidance is in
agreement that surface dewpoints in the mid- to upper 50s will
surge northward over North and Central Texas by Sunday afternoon.
Latest SREF guidance is unimpressed with the Sunday moisture
return with a ~30% chance that 60-degree dewpoints even make it
into our Central Texas counties. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop along an eastward-advancing dryline/Pacific front
late Sunday afternoon just west of our forecast area forming into
a line/broken line of thunderstorms as they push east over our
forecast area Sunday evening/night. Impressive wind fields would
suggest a severe weather threat, but with a lack of appreciable
low-level moisture and instability and cooling overnight
temperatures, storms may struggle to strengthen as they enter our
area. In fact, the best potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms looks to remain northwest of our forecast area where
steep mid-level lapse rates may lead to a narrow corridor of
1000-1500 J/kg CAPE as the shortwave trough axis shifts overhead
the dryline Sunday afternoon/evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will shift east through the overnight
and into Monday morning. With strong 40-50 kt winds just a few
thousand feet off the surface, we will need to monitor the
potential for gusty downburst winds in any stronger storms that
transit North and Central Texas. Greater moisture return is
expected Monday as a trailing shortwave trough shifts over West
Texas. Intensification of the line of thunderstorms is likely
Monday afternoon as this system`s actual cold front catches up to
the Pacific front. There may be a narrow window Monday afternoon
for a couple strong to severe thunderstorms in our far eastern
zones before they enter East Texas. Hail and strong winds would be
the main hazards. Another widespread 0.25"-0.75" of rainfall is
likely with this event with the greater potential for 1+" residing
east of I-35.

The cold front will have pushed through most of Central Texas by
Monday evening lending way to cooler/drier conditions for the
midweek period. Afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows in the mid-30s to mid-40s are expected Tuesday with
slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 114 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Ceilings this morning will be a challenge. An area of IFR ceilings
over the eastern D10 terminals is slowly creeping NW. Meanwhile,
patchy MVFR ceilings are moving into D10 from the W-NW. Our
confidence of the exact ceiling height/timing is low, but we do
expect IFR to eventually blanket all of D10 within an hour or
two of sunrise. A northerly wind shift is expected between 11-13Z
that will help lift the ceilings to MVFR. MVFR should prevail for
most of the day, gradually improving to VFR later this afternoon.
Scattered showers are expected from about 17-22Z with the chance
of thunderstorms around 10%.

A reinforcing cold front will move through tonight that may bring
a couple hours of MVFR between 02-06Z. Confidence of this was too
low to include in the TAFs ATTM.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  48  68  56  70 /  30   0   0   0  10
Waco                71  50  70  56  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               62  46  67  49  66 /  60  10   0   0  10
Denton              67  44  66  53  69 /  30   0   0   0  20
McKinney            65  45  66  53  68 /  30   5   0   0  20
Dallas              67  49  69  56  70 /  30   5   0   0  10
Terrell             65  47  68  54  69 /  30   5   0   0  10
Corsicana           67  51  69  56  72 /  30   5   0   0   5
Temple              74  49  71  55  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  45  68  54  73 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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