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000
FXUS65 KGGW 240825
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
225 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Dry weather and above-average temperatures in store through
Thursday afternoon.

2) Thursday evening, a frontal system and moderate instability
leading to a 30% chance of thunderstorms south of I-94, with
greatest risk of hail remaining in extreme southeast Montana.

3) Remainder of the week introduces daily chances of precipitation
and near-normal temperatures.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A ridge off in the Dakotas keeps the region under southwest flow
aloft today, leading to calm weather and temperatures as much as
15 to 20 degrees above average. Winds increase (as high as 20 mph
sustained) across far northeast Montana, but RH values quickly
increase as night time creeps in; conditions remains under Red
Flag conditions.

Thursday, a developing surface low in the Great Plains will form
along a surface boundary/front that extends north into eastern
Montana. The NBM currently places this boundary near the
Yellowstone River Valley by Thursday afternoon. This front, though
not a textbook dry-line, is dictated more by a more moist airmass
south of I-94. Throughout the day, low and mid-level moisture
transport will increase instability in this region. As these
levels moisten and daily convection initiates, isolated, discrete
thunderstorms will develop east of the aforementioned boundary,
but will quickly diminish as the cells move into less-favorable
storm environments.

From Friday, upper-level troughing over the region will brings
temperatures back down into near-normal territory (upper 50s to
low 60s) with increased chances of rain showers (20-50%). By
Sunday, upper flow aloft returns from the southwest, bringing
minimal chances for precipitation and an increasing trend for
temperatures.


CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Only potential deviation in the forecast will be for Thursday. Any
shift in the boundary will dictate instability values for
locations south of I-94.

-Enriquez



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0825Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Aside from some high cirrus, expect mostly dry
conditions through Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon, isolated
showers and thunderstorms develop south and east of KGDV.

SFC WIND: Light and variable this morning, leads to more 10-15 kt
southeasterly winds by this afternoon. Tonight, winds relax.
Thursday, winds shift to be more northwesterly at 10 kts for KGGW
and KOLF, while remaining near 10 kts from the southeast for KSDY
and KGDV.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow