000
FXUS65 KGGW 261205
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
605 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Red Flag Warning today for a portion of NE Montana due to low
  humidity and gusty winds.

- Increased potential for precipitation next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Slight upper ridge remains over Montana as a series of low
pressure systems spin through the central Rockies and lift across
the Plains toward the upper Midwest. This will keep northeast
Montana generally warm and dry through the weekend.

Early next week the ensembles move toward a more zonal pattern
with shortwaves pushing across the northern Rockies. This will
bring the potential for showers to the region through next week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Regarding Red Flag conditions today, confidence is low to
moderate with the ensemble probability of wind gusts above 25 mph
and RH below 25% maxing out around 40% along the Yellowstone River
in the late afternoon. With general trend of NBM over forecasting
RH and under forecasting winds, the probability is likely a
little higher, so did lower RH for today and blended the NBM90
into the forecast.

Precipitation chances for next week also have a fairly low
probability with about one third of the ensembles indicating a
wetting rain for Tuesday. The remainder of the week will only have
light precipitation.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with primarily mid level clouds are moving through the
region. Some LLWS is possible this morning before the winds mix
out. Gusty northeast winds are expected through the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern
Valley and Northern Phillips Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow