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000
FXUS63 KGID 202021
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
321 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near or below freezing are expected across the
  whole area tonight into Sunday morning. Freeze Warnings and
  Frost Advisories are in effect.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  (40% to 60% chance) Tuesday afternoon due to higher winds and
  lower humidity values.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (20% to 30%
  chance) Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Today through Sunday...

An upper level trough centered over Canada extends southward over
much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country including Nebraska and
Kansas. A surface high is present across the area with northerly
winds. This is allowing the cooler air to stay in place with high
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the mid 40s across western
portions of the forecast area to the mid 50s across eastern
portions. Cloud cover with some areas of precipitation is also
helping to keep temperatures cooler. Winds will be light out of the
northwest tonight and most of the forecast area is expected to be
clear to mostly clear with the exception of the southeast portion of
the area. These conditions will result in temperatures dropping to
near or below freezing across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into
Sunday morning for south central and central Nebraska and Phillips
and Smith Counties in north central Kansas. A Frost Advisory is in
effect tonight into Sunday morning for Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne,
and Rooks Counties in north central Kansas. The upper trough will
begin to exit the area on Sunday. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be fairly light and
will transition to the southwest on Sunday with mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies. This will allow for temperatures to warm up
into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday night through Tuesday night...

Winds will increase out of the south due to a tightening pressure
gradient Sunday night with some increasing high clouds. This will
result in low temperatures Sunday night only cooling into the upper
30s to lower 40s. Gusty south to southwest winds will be across most
of the area on Monday along with a surface trough allowing for
temperatures to continue to warm up with highs expected to reach the
lower 70s to lower 80s. This warm up will be hindered a little by
some high clouds Monday afternoon. An upper low/trough centered over
Canada will extend southward to Nebraska with an associated cold
front pushing southward towards the area on Monday. This front will
move through most of the forecast area Monday night. This will
contribute to an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances (up to
a 60% chance) Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night are
expected to mostly be in the 40s. Northerly winds will continue
across the area during the day on Tuesday with a surface high
present. Sustained winds of near or above 20 mph are expected across
northeastern portions of the forecast area with wind gusts of over
20 mph across the whole area. Minimum relative humidity values on
Tuesday are expected to range from around 20% to 29% leading to
possible elevated to near critical fire weather conditions during
the afternoon. This will result in cooler temperatures with highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures Tuesday night behind the cold
front with a surface high nearby will cool into the mid 30s to mid
40s.

Wednesday through Friday night...

Upper ridging will begin to impact the region on Wednesday with east
to southeast surface winds. High temperatures on Wednesday will be
fairly similar to those on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Wednesday (up to a 25% chance) into Wednesday night (up
to a 40% chance) as shortwaves move over the area. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will mostly be in the 40s with elevated southeast
winds and mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trough will begin to
move over the Central Plains on Thursday with gusty southeast winds
present. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to range from
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue
Thursday (up to 60%) and Thursday night (up to around 70%). Strong
to severe storms are possible (around a 20% to 30% chance) Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night due to the increase in moisture and
lift. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to be in the 40s
and 50s. Rain and storm chances (up to 60%) will continue for Friday
as the upper low/trough moves to the northeast of the area. High
temperatures, at this time, are expected to mostly be in the 70s for
Friday and the 40s for Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally be out of the northwest with some variability.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005-006.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt