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000
FXUS63 KGID 232012
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
312 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather is occurring this
  afternoon due to windy and dry conditions across most of the
  area.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible (about a 30% chance)
  Thursday into Friday.

- Wind gusts could get up to 30 to 45 mph out of the southwest
  to west on Friday.

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 60s and 70s, except on
  Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is centered over Canada and extends southwest
over Nebraska and Kansas. A cold front associated with this trough
has moved through the region with northerly winds behind it. Winds
are generally sustained between 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 20
and 40 mph. Humidity values across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas are between 15% to 30%. These
conditions have created near critical fire weather for today. High
temperatures today will be in the 60s and 70s. Winds will weaken
this evening and become more easterly to southeasterly tonight. A
surface high will be nearby with lows dropping into the mid 30s to
mid 40s.

Wednesday through Friday...

The upper trough will move to the east with upper ridging moving
over Nebraska and Kansas. Winds will be out of the southeast on
Wednesday with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Fortunately, humidity values
will be higher leading to lower fire weather concerns. High
temperatures on Wednesday will again be in the 60s and 70s. Winds
will remain out of the southeast Wednesday night with lows in the
40s to lower 50s. An upper trough to the west will begin moving over
the Central Plains on Thursday resulting in an increase in upper
lift. Winds will be out of the southeast with gusts generally up to
30 to 35 mph during the afternoon. These southeast winds will
transport an increase of moisture into the area on Thursday with
dewpoints reaching the 50s during the afternoon. This will result in
an increase in showers and thunderstorms on Thursday with chances up
to near 85%. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be
similar as those the previous day. Upper lift will continue to
increase Thursday evening and night as the upper trough gets closer
to the area. Severe thunderstorms will be possible (about a 30%
chance) Thursday evening and Thursday night. Severe storms may
linger into Friday morning across portions of the forecast area. Low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 40s to the
lower 60s. Shower and thunderstorm chances (up to near 90%) will
continue on Friday. High temperatures on Friday will range from the
upper 60s to the upper 70s. Winds on Friday will be gusty out of the
southwest to west as the base of the upper low/trough moves
overhead. Wind gusts could get up to 30 to 45 mph Friday afternoon.

Friday night through Monday night...

Winds will weaken Friday night and will generally be out of the west
to northwest. Lows will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Winds
will generally be out of the north on Saturday with an upper trough
moving toward the region from the west. These northerly winds will
lead to cooler temperatures across northwestern portions of the
forecast area. The upper trough will move over Nebraska and Kansas
Saturday night. This will result in increasing chances (up to around
75%) of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures Saturday night
are expected to range from the low 40s to low 50s. Rain and storm
chances (up to 55%) will continue for Sunday as the upper trough
continues to move over the region. High temperatures for Sunday will
range from the mid 50s to upper 60s. The upper trough will move
northeast of the region Sunday night with precipitation chances
coming to an end. Lows are expected to drop into the mid 30s to
lower 40s. High temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid
60s to mid 70s on Monday with mostly sunny skies. Lows Monday night
will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty out of the northwest to north this afternoon. Winds will
decrease this evening and become northeast then southeast by
12z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt