Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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484 FXUS65 KGJT 011150 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 550 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will cool temperatures 5-10 degrees across much of the region today and Thursday. - Valley rains and mountain snow are expected through the day today. 1-2 inches of snow is expected above 9000 feet, with some higher peaks getting more. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning and gusty winds today. - Warm and dry conditions materialize for the weekend before unsettled conditions return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 A shallow trough crossing the Great Basin this morning is pushing a frontal boundary roughly oriented from Las Vegas to Cheyenne, WY across the west. The narrow band of forcing associated with this front will impact the region starting this morning around daybreak. A few scattered showers out ahead of the front were seen on radar overnight, but extensive dry air at the surface kept much, if any, from reaching the ground. A richer moisture plume along the front caught up in the jet max will help with saturating the lower layers this morning and producing some measurable rain across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, as well as some mountain snow. A few of these showers will likely produce thunderstorms along the front. Gusty southwest winds will pick up ahead of the front today, especially under the jet max as it drags across the CWA. Cloud cover and precipitation will spell out a more dramatic shift in temperatures this afternoon north of the Colorado River. The shallow nature of the trough will also mean less cold air spilling in southward. In fact most of our southwest Colorado and southeast Utah locales will see afternoon highs similar to Wednesday`s, while up north 5-10 degree swings in high temperature are expected today. The front pushes through much of the CWA by this afternoon and a few showers hang around the western shoulders of the Divide just past midnight. Clearing skies will drive overnight lows down into the 30`s for our desert valleys and into the teens and 20`s for the mountain towns Thursday morning. The broad, shallow trough to our north keeps a frontal boundary draped across the WY/CO state line Thursday. This will be enough to keep some cloud cover in place Thursday afternoon. Winds will return more west to southwest too, so post frontal lapse rates aren`t expected to generate the usual instability we get here on the West Slope. Still, a few showers are expected to materialize across northern Colorado and Utah thanks to persistent vorticity maxima rippling through. Thursday afternoon highs will trend down 5-10 degrees too and winds will remain gusty thanks to stronger winds aloft mixing down during the afternoon. A few showers are expected to continue into Friday morning as the trough takes its time sliding eastward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 On Friday the next shortwave trough clips northern portions of the forecast area. It will bring moisture and provide the lift needed for another round of showers and storms. For now the more scattered coverage looks to be along and north of I-70, while south of that is more isolated. The precip amounts are highest in the Park Range with decreasing values into the valleys. Snow levels should be around 8 kft, with little any accumulation on roads during the day. A tight pressure associated with the trough will result in gusty winds across a good portion of the area. That system quickly exits to the east late Friday causing conditions to dry out. Attention then turns to a deep low pressure making landfall in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. As that system moves inland it will force a ridge to build over the Intermountain West. This triggers some warm advection for us so expect highs to increase 5-10 degrees from Friday to Saturday. Models are notorious for struggling with these type of systems, and there is still disagreement among the deterministic models, so confidence is low to medium. When that low pressure makes it to our area it will bring showers, wind and mountain snow. Right now that appears to be Sunday and Monday. If the low moves further south along the coast it will delay the arrival. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 544 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 A cold front will work its way through the region today and tonight. Valley rain showers and mountain snow is expected, as well as a few thunderstorms along the front. Terminals can expect to see intermittent IFR conditions within shower activity. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will also be a concern around some of the stronger showers. Surface winds will be strong ahead of the front and begin to subside towards midnight tonight when the frontal boundary begins to clear the region. Most places will return to VFR conditions later this evening, while some clouds and isolated showers will hang up on the Divide into the early morning hours of Thursday. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGJT