Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270452
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

For the most part, cool and clear conditions are expected across SE
TX tonight as surface high pressure builds down into the region. We
should see temperatures fall quickly this evening, with lows in the
lower 40s north...mid and upper 40s central and south and the lower
and mid 50s along the coast.

However, this respite from rain could be very brief. A broad trough
at the mid/upper levels is set to move east across the Plains tomor-
row...bringing with it a couple of shortwaves which could be enough
to generate some widely scattered showers (as well as some isolated
thunderstorms). While overall moisture levels are progged to be low,
PWs do appear to climb into the 0.7-1.0 inch range through the day.
This along with a slightly favorable upper jet placement(LRQ) could
support 20-30% POPs for much of the region...starting from the west
late tomorrow morning through the afternoon. A second weaker short-
wave tomorrow evening may not have enough to work with, but hi-res/
CAMS do indicate a weaker band moving across the northern CWFA dur-
that time. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s to around 70...
with lows in the mid and upper 40s to around 50. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Surface high pressure will transition off to the east allowing
onshore winds to resume by late Thursday. This will bring some lower
level Gulf moisture back into the area and a gradual return to
muggier conditions with lows in the 60s. Combination of some
subtle mid level ridging and overall shallow depth of quality
moisture should keep rain chances on the low-nil side until early
next week. Next best shot of precipitation looks to be around
Tuesday with the approach of the next western trof and associated
frontal boundary. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period across SE
TX. Light N-NE winds will continue tonight and will strengthen to
5-10 KTS on Wed. Winds become VRB Wed afternoon thru Thu morning
as a sfc boundary meanders over the region. There is still a
chance for some showers and possible iso storms on Wed as an
upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains, but coverage
and intensity will depend on how strong the cap will be at that
time. Chance for storms look to be more possible during the
evening to early night hours, in particular for sites north of
HOU. Based on the latest HiRes guidance, SH/TS should exit to the
east of UTS around midnight.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A lingering elevated, longer period southerly swell will be on a
gradual decline tonight and Wednesday. At 230pm, seas at buoy 42019
were are running around 7ft. Will maintain the small craft advsy
offshore til 7pm and see if we can get them to fall another foot.
May need to issue another short term extension if they don`t.
Otherwise, northeast winds will generally prevail into early
Thursday. As surface high pressure moves off to the east, and lee
side pressures fall, onshore winds should resume late Thursday and
gradually increase in speed heading into the weekend.  Dewpoints
will probably approach nearshore water temps over the weekend, so
wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog/haze develop...but wind
speeds currently look high enough to mitigate a substantial dense
fog threat. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  45  67  47  75 /   0  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  49  69  50  77 /   0  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  58  68  60  70 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$


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