Text Products for ESF Issued by HGX

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
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FGUS74 KHGX 181615
ESFHGX
190414-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1115 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Trinity River Basin in Southeast Texas...


The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service office has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the
Trinity River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.


In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Trinity River at Liberty has a flood
stage of 26 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Liberty
forecast point will rise above 24.8 feet during the next 90 days.


           Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
                  Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024


Location     fs(ft)    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
Trinity River
 Crockett     41.0    27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 30.1 34.7 38.8 46.2
Bedias Creek
 Madisonville 19.0     6.5 11.4 13.9 15.6 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.4 19.5
Trinity River
 Riverside   134.0   134.0 134.0 134.0 134.0 134.0 134.0 134.1 135.2 136.8
Long King Creek
 Livingston   19.0     4.8  5.1  5.2  5.7  7.7  9.1 14.0 18.6 22.2
Lower Trinity River
 Goodrich     36.0    21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.6 23.3 28.3 32.2 35.0
Rye Creek
 Rye          20.0    10.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.9 18.0 21.2 23.5
Trinity River
 Romayor      40.0    23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 24.0 25.3 28.7 31.7 33.7
 Liberty      26.0    24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.8 26.0 27.7 28.9 29.6
 Moss Bluff   15.0    12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.4 13.3 14.2 14.4 14.7


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx
(internet address is all lower case).


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
