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000
FXUS64 KHUN 190528
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1228 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An area of sfc low pressure is moving into the OH River Valley,
bringing a cold front down through the deep south into portions of
Texas. Sfc high pressure off the east coast of FL is allowing
southerly flow to continue, bringing increased moisture to
TN Valley. Ahead of the cold front, low-medium shower/storm
chances (30-60%) will be possible through the overnight hours.
However, chances of strong storms remain low due to decreasing sfc
CAPE as we move into the overnight to early morning hours. Low
level lapse rates will also continue to struggle to reach values
over 5-6 C/km. Elevated instability, however, remains above 1000
J/kg coupled with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. In
addition to this, effective bulk shear will increase to around
20-30 kts. PWATs are also in the 1.4-1.5" range, which exceeds the
90th percentile sounding climatology per BMX. Therefore, any
strong storm that may develop will be capable of producing gusty
to damaging winds, hail, lightning, and heavy rainfall. Otherwise,
low temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 60s
under scattered to broken cloud cover.

The cold front is forecast to reach our area in the morning
hours. More on that in the short-term section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Showers and storms will continue slowly pushing southeast through
the area tomorrow morning as the front continues to dig across the
Southeast. Depending on the timing, a few isolated strong/severe
storms could develop across southeast portions of the area late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon aided by diurnal heating. As
the front clears the area, expect cooler northwesterly flow and
dry conditions by tomorrow night. Overnight lows will fall into
the low to mid 50s, and will continue to cool on Saturday with
highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. As zonal flow takes over aloft,
will keep low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and storms
in the forecast through Sunday afternoon, with the best chances
south of the TN River Sunday morning and afternoon. Highs on
Sunday will be quite cool, with afternoon temps struggling to
reach above the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Monday will be dry but still cool with highs in the 60s as high
pressure at the surface overspreads the OH and TN valleys. Dry
weather should last through Tuesday with temperatures warming
back into the 70s. On Wednesday, upper troughing resulting from a
strong upper low in Quebec and Ontario, will bring a cold front
south through the TN valley. At this point, leaning toward a dry
forecast, but it is borderline and may need further changes later
if the models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A small area of showers over north-central AL will track eastward
over the next hour. Main feature will be a line of storms to the
northwest, anticipated to reach MSL around 10Z and HSV at 11Z.
AWWs may be needed for lightning and gusty winds at this time.
Lingering vsby issues and IFR cigs are forecast through the
morning followed by an additional round of scattered showers in
the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Near the end of the TAF
period, a cold front will cause winds to become northerly around
10 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30