024
FXUS63 KICT 051812
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
112 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence has increased in a severe weather outbreak on Monday
  afternoon and Monday night.

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms over southern Kansas this
  morning while lingering across parts of southeast Kansas
  through much of the afternoon.

- A strong or severe storm may develop over far southeast Kansas
  on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave trough lifting northeast over the Southern Plains was
evident on moisture channel imagery and RAP analysis late this
evening. As this system continues moving northeastward we may see
some showers with embedded storms impact southern Kansas this
morning while portions of southeast Kansas may have some lingering
activity into the afternoon hours. As the previous forecaster noted,
poor lapse rates and marginal instability will preclude strong or
severe storms today.

As we move into Monday, a vigorous mid/upper trough over Northern
California tonight is progged to pivot eastward over the Central
Great Basin/Northern Intermountain area on Sunday and into the
Rockies Sunday night. This trough will then emerge negatively tilted
across the Central and Northern Plains on Monday. The left exit
region of a 120kt H25 jet is progged to nose into the Southern and
Central Plains late in the day with large H5 height falls and
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent developing downstream
in diffluent mid/upper flow. The cap is progged to weaken in the
19-20Z window with the initial development over central and
northern Kansas as the lead wave lifts rapidly northeastward
into the Northern Plains. The initial storm mode in central and
northern KS may be more linear with the initial development as
the upper jet/deep layer shear vectors are oriented more
poleward similar to the dryline position. But as you move
southward into southern Kansas and especially Oklahoma, a more
discrete mode may be favored during the late afternoon and
evening hours in the 22Z-08Z timeframe as the westerly mid/upper
jet overspreads the area. A strengthening LLJ during the
evening hours will result in elongated cyclonically curved
hodographs and this is when we expect to have the best potential
for discrete supercells capable of very large hail, damaging
winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. The GFS is
much more progressive mixing the dryline eastward and bringing
an end to pcpn by 06Z but the other deterministic models would
support a slower scenario which was favored.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on
Tuesday as the mid/upper trough lifts over the Northern Plains
with westerly flow developing over the Central Plains. Dry and
mild conditions are anticipated with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

The mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains will propagate south
and eastward arriving back over the Central Plains late on Wed. Sfc
cyclogenesis in eastern OK may allow for some moisture return into
southeast KS where a round of storms could be possible during the
afternoon hours. Better chances may remain just south and east of
the area but it`ll be hard to rule out a brief strong or severe
storm in far southeast KS on Wed afternoon.

Thu-Sat...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated once again on
Thu with another frontal boundary settling south across the area.
Most areas are expected to remain dry with seasonable highs in the
low 70s anticipated. A subtle shortwave trough is progged to rotate
over the area on Friday as northwest mid/upper flow develops in it`s
wake but a dry forecast will remain in place with seasonable
temperatures anticipated. As we move into the beginning of the
weekend, we`ll continue to see northwest mid/upper flow across the
Central Plains with seasonably mild temperatures and dry weather
conditions anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Areas of rain over eastern and southeast Kansas will gradually
exit eastward through the afternoon and evening. Widespread MVFR
to eventual IFR ceilings and drizzle will gradually develop
across the region this evening through later tonight, as rich
low-level moisture begins advecting in from the south. Thinking
we could even see some fog over southeast Kansas from roughly
the Flint Hills on east this evening through early Monday, with
corresponding LIFR conditions possible. Confidence is low in
this scenario, so did not hit conditions too hard just yet in
the CNU TAF.

Looking ahead beyond 18z Monday...scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to march east across the region
Monday afternoon and evening. Some of the storms will be severe,
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK