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000
FXUS63 KICT 092311
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
611 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Modest rain chances late tonight and Wednesday for locations
  closer to the Oklahoma border of south central/southeast KS.

- Stronger north winds and lower humidity values on Thursday
  afternoon for elevated grassland fire danger west of I-135.

- Much warmer this weekend with highs well into the 80s for the
  first time this Spring.

- Chance for strong/severe storms early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Southern stream upper low/trof remains the short term weather
feature as it moves eastward across the southern Plains through
Wednesday. There will likely be a sharp gradient of PoPs within the
developing deformation zone which looks to reside along the Oklahoma
border counties of south central/southeast Kansas. Marginal/weak
elevated instability also supports maintenance of isolated thunder
chances mainly closer to the Oklahoma border. Turning windy on
Thursday in the wake of the departing trof with winds flirting close
to advisory criteria with elevated grassland fire danger for
portions of central Kansas. A significant warming trend will
commence on Friday with ridging aloft moving into the area during
the afternoon as well as gusty southerly surface/low level flow.

The medium range is still supportive of much warmer temperatures
over the weekend with a weak migratory trof briefly dampening the
ridge aloft over the area on Saturday. This will support dry weather
with highs well into the 80s area-wide for the first time this
Spring. A more active Spring time pattern looks to evolve through
early next week, though details remain a bit challenging with
handling of the developing western conus upper low/trof. Whether
this trof ejects over the Plains on Monday or Tuesday, there
appears more then adequate shear and instability combo for an
organized severe storm risk.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected across the region for most of the
TAF period. Only KICT and KCNU may see some MVFR conditions
during the morning hours tomorrow. Kept it out of the TAF for
ICT at this time as the probabilities are rather low. KCNU has
a chance for some shower activity after 10Z tomorrow morning.
There is even a chance for an isolated thunderstorm but this is
expected to remain to the south of the region. All all terminals
are expected to remain VFR for this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

After a couple days of rather muted fire weather conditions,
stronger north winds and much lower daytime humidity levels
Thursday afternoon will result in very high grassland fire
danger for areas generally west of I-135 in central and south
central Kansas. A much warmer and gusty southerly wind on
Saturday afternoon may also result in a very high fire danger
for locations primarily west of I-135.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...KED