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000
FXUS63 KILX 180810
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe threat remains for counties along and south of a line
  from Schuyler to Vermilion counties. The greatest risk
  (enhanced, level 3/5) is located from Scott to Clark counties
  and south.

- The system should be entering west-central Illinois by 10-11am
  and exit southeastern Illinois by midnight tonight. Storm mode
  is expected to be QLCS in nature. However, supercells could
  develop early on.

- There is a 30-40% chance of temperatures dropping below freezing
  Sunday morning for areas north of I-72 and west of I-55.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Good morning, central Illinois! As the world wakes, we prep for
another round of severe weather this afternoon. The 00z NAMNest and
HRRR, along with a couple HRW models, indicate that the showers and
thunderstorms will enter west-central Illinois by 15-17z (10am-
12pm). This early round will primarily affect areas north of I-72.
There could potentially be some supercells around/after noon, ahead
of the line of storms arrival. The line of storms we are most
concerned about develops and arrives from the west by mid-afternoon
(21-22z, 4-5pm). The system should be departing the southeastern
counties by midnight tonight.

Today`s hazards primarily should be damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes. The biggest risk for tornadoes looks to be closest to the
low track. The low is progged to track along the I-72 corridor,
where the SPC has placed the 5% tor risk and 30% damaging wind risk
regions. That area is where the higher sig tor parameter values can
be found (values: 1-2). 0-6km bulk shear values range from 30-40
knots ahead of the front which could support the early, discrete
cells. Along the front, as the QLCS moves across the state, the 0-3
km shear vectors are practically parallel to the boundary. This
points towards the line having damaging winds as the main threat,
but spin ups can`t be completely ruled out, especially closer to the
low center track. SPC has a slight risk (level 2/5) for along and
south of a line from Schuyler to Vermilion counties. The greatest
risk (enhanced, level 3/5) is located from Scott to Clark counties
and south.

Following the cold frontal passage this evening, colder temperatures
will move into the state. We will be going from well above normal
temperatures to below normal temperatures. Overnight lows will get
pretty chilly this weekend, with lows in the 30s. There is a
frost/freeze threat as the CWA is within growing season and many
sensitive vegetation types are blooming. Saturday night into Sunday
morning will be the coldest night of the weekend. There is a 30-40%
chance of temperatures dropping below freezing Sunday morning for
areas north of I-72 and west of I-55. After Sunday, temperatures
will begin to warm back up for the new week.

The weekend appears to be dry, albeit chilly. The next chance for
showers comes Monday afternoon.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Ridge of high pressure will move across central Illinois overnight
resulting in VFR conditions and light and variable winds. Ongoing
convection over the mid Missouri Valley this evening will spread
east overnight and begin to weaken as it nears the Illinois River
Valley Thursday morning. PIA has the best chance to see any of
this first wave of precip. Storms will redevelop ahead of low
pressure over MO/IA Thursday afternoon and are expected to congeal
into a line and sweep across central Illinois late afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceilings will accompany the low passage.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$