Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221839
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
239 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More snow is possible over Michigan and northwest Indiana this evening.
  Any accumulation will be light and mainly on grassy surfaces.

- Cool and dry this weekend with lows well into the 20s.

- More rain anticipated late Monday into Tuesday with warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The forecast area is in the middle of a split flow regime this
afternoon with a weak northern stream system bringing snow to
lower Michigan, and a second weak system coming up from the
south. The northern shortwave will continue to lift up and away
from the forecast area, but as the longwave trough swings
through the region, the tail end of the precipitation will
likely bring some more light snow into NW Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this evening. This will then sweep across the
rest of northern Indiana into NW Ohio before completely clearing
the area later tonight. Despite easterly surface winds, mid to
low level warm air advection has brought temperatures into the
40s, especially south of Michigan, and so mostly rain is
expected with the southern system. In between the two there
could be a mix of rain and snow, or some graupel, as was
observed this morning. Colder air will move in overnight, and
temperatures will fall into the 20s, so any lingering showers in
the morning will likely be snow. There may also be some lake
effect snow Saturday morning with a northerly fetch over the
lake. However, this trajectory favors far NW Indiana (Chicago`s
forecast area) as opposed to our forecast area, and confidence
is low that La Porte or Berrien counties will see much.

Dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of Saturday
and Sunday with high pressure over the region. Temperatures will
be on the cool side Saturday with breezy northerly winds.
Sunday will then warm to near normal as winds shift to the
southeast and the mid-level flow becomes more southerly in
advance of the next trough approaching from the west. This next
system will bring warmer weather for Monday, with rain moving in
during the afternoon and evening. Rain will overspread the area
on Tuesday. Dry conditions return for the second half of the
week with high temperatures starting in the 40s on Wednesday,
then rising into the 50s for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Graupel and snow showers may remain in the vicinity of KSBN into the
early to mid afternoon hours today. This activity is located on the
southern fringe of an elevated warm front. VFR otherwise before the
main, weak, upper level disturbance and associated frontal wave
shift east through the area this evening with a several hour period
of light snow and rain mixed. Better chances for snow and IFR
visby`s will be at KSBN 00-02z, with MVFR cigs and winds backing
northerly in wake of this system overnight into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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