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000
FXUS62 KJAX 120649
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
249 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Skies are clearing across western portions of the area as a trough
with a narrow band of lower level clouds sweeps east across NE FL
towards the St Johns river and off the SE GA coast with the last
impetus for breezy winds overnight 15-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph
diminishing through the predawn hours to 5-10 mph.

A mid/upper level trough will remain entrenched over the eastern
third of the country as a shortwave diving southeast from the upper
Midwest towards the Carolinas by late this afternoon, deepening
the trough along the east coast. This feature will bring a dry
cold front through the southeast into the area by late afternoon
and serve to keep the local pressure gradient tightened. Sunny
skies will allow winds to mix down after mid morning and create a
breezy day 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Highs will reach the
mid/upper 70s today for most areas and near 80 over the southern
St Johns basin.

Tonight, winds will relax in the wake of the dry cold front and
turn more northwesterly 5-10 mph. Lows will be in the upper 40s
inland and the low/mid 50s coast and along the St Johns river
under clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Saturday...Next trough passage pushes across the SE US and through
the local area by the afternoon hours and will re-inforce the
already dry airmass in place and under sunny skies expect
seasonable Max temps in the mid/upper 70s along with near breezy
Northwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph during the
afternoon hours.

Saturday Night...High pressure ridge builds in from the West and
settles over the region by sunrise Sunday morning and under clear
skies and near calm winds expect below normal low temps in the
upper 40s/near 50F over inland areas and in the lower/middle 50s
closer to the Atlantic Coast.

Sunday...High pressure ridge at the surface settles just south of
the region over the Florida Peninsula and expect light and
variable winds at 5-10 mph under sunny skies and max temps rebound
to slightly above normal levels in the 80-85F range inland, while
an East Coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland keeping the
Atlantic Coast cooler with highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday Night...High pressure ridge remains just south of the
region with a few high clouds streaming out of the Gulf across the
region. Not as cool with overnight lows in the lower/middle 50s
inland and upper 50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Dry conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
ridge extends from the Western Atlantic across the FL Peninsula
and this will bring the steering flow around to a more southerly
direction with a continued warm-up through the entire week with
above normal temps expected. Highs will reach well into the 80s
for the entire week with an East Coast sea breeze pushing inland
each day keeping the Atlantic beaches slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Breezy winds
from the west will diminish by 09-12Z with clearing skies as drier
air filters into the region. Friday will feature sunny skies, but
remain breezy as a dry trough approaches from the northwest and
keeps the local pressure gradient tightened across the regional
terminals through sunset. Westerly winds will range 13-18 knots
with gusts to 20-25 knots. With the loss of heating after sunset
winds will diminish and become more northwesterly in the wake of
the trough.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Elevated winds and seas will linger through sunrise producing small
craft advisory conditions offshore and exercise caution
conditions nearshore as a trough exits the waters. Winds lower to
exercise caution levels for the remainder of today as high
pressure slowly builds in from the west. A dry cold front will
approach the waters this evening and may briefly surge winds to
advisory levels as the front clears the waters by Saturday
morning. The high will builds over the waters through Sunday with
relaxing west to northwest winds turning southerly Sunday
afternoon as the high shifts just east of the waters through early
next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today at all area
beaches. A moderate risk is expected for NE FL beaches on Saturday
with a low risk for SE GA beaches on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Breezy West winds at 15-20 mph will combine with MinRH values in
the 30-35% range, just above critical levels and recent heavy
rainfall event will preclude any red flag headlines for this
(Friday) afternoon. Next trough passage on Saturday will filter in
even drier conditions with critical MinRH values around 25%, but
NW winds will remain just below critical levels in the 10-15 mph
range, so red flag headlines are not expected but elevated fire
weather conditions are expected as fuels slowly begin to dry out
from recent heavy rainfall.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Very heavy rainfall Thursday that fell along and north of I-10
corridor has produced pronounced river rises over area rivers.
Flood warnings for minor flooding are in effect along portions
of the Satilla, Santa Fe, and Suwannee Rivers and will continue
into next week. Additionally, Moderate flooding is forecast for
Statenville along the Alapaha basin this weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  48  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  53  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  77  51  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  80  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  77  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  77  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$