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000
FXUS62 KJAX 191133
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
733 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure east of the area will dominate the local weather
pattern today and tonight with just some high cirrus across the
region. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 90s
except in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast as a sea
breeze develops this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in
the lower to mid 60s inland and in the mid to upper 60s for the
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A cold front will slowly sink southward into Georgia on Saturday,
prompting scattered showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms
across southeast Georgia. By Sunday, the front will be lingering
near the Florida/Georgia state border, allowing for precipitation
potential to spread southward through the Gainesville/St.
Augustine line. Again, scattered thunderstorms will be likely
throughout the day Sunday, and through the overnight hours area-
wide.

Temperatures will be well above normal this weekend, with SE GA
and NE FL seeing high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
Saturday, including beach side due to southerly winds. Sunday will
be a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across
NE FL, and upper 70s to mid 80s across SE GA depending on the
front`s position.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

By Monday, the front will be south of the area, leaving the rest
of the week dry as high pressure builds behind the front. As the
front passes through on Monday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be likely area-wide, along with below normal
temperatures for most of the region. Highs in SE GA will stay in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, with high temperatures in the 70s
across NE FL. Each day of the week will get gradually warmer, by
Wednesday highs will be in the 80s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Localized low stratus pushing from the Gulf of Mexico will advect
over GNV and lead to LIFR/IFR ceiling through around 13z. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions will prevail as layered mid and high cloud trail west
to east. Westerly winds will be favored this morning at or below 10
knots at all sites. The afternoon sea breeze will shift winds to ESE
as it begins to push inland around 19/20z and reaching the I-95
corridor around 22z where it will dissipate this evening.

Tonight, VFR conditions will persist at airfields along the I-95
corridor whereas low stratus and fog (IFR/LIFR) will advance from
the Gulf toward the I-75 corridor during the predawn hours Friday,
impacting GNV and possibly VQQ. It doesn`t appear this layer of
low stratus will push to the I-95 corridor at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Weak high pressure ridging continues over local waters through
Friday as a weak trough passes just to the north. By Saturday, a
cold frontal boundary will approach the region and stall along the
FL/GA line before making its way through Sunday through Monday
with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. High
pressure then builds across area waters once again Tuesday and
into Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL and SE GA
beaches through at least Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
on Friday 4/19 and Saturday 4/20 and will be close record levels.

                        Record High   Record High   Average First Date
                        Friday 4/19  Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)    92/1995       92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)     91/2013       91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)     94/2011       94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)       91/1968       93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  66  90  65 /   0   0  30  20
SSI  85  67  86  66 /  10   0  20  20
JAX  91  64  92  65 /   0   0  20  10
SGJ  87  64  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  90  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  90  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$