Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
306 FXUS62 KKEY 300725 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 325 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a moisture- enriched environment below a 4 degrees Celsius capping inversion based at around the 800 mb isobaric surface. Although breezes have slackened somewhat compared to the past several days, speed convergence as well as an elevated height for the ridge-driven cap has allowed light showers to proliferate in portions of the Middle and Upper Keys. Radar-derived estimates for rainfall totals there are generally less than a quarter of an inch at most locations. Outside of any showers, skies are generally partly cloudy across the island chain, with temperatures in the mid 70s. For today, it is worth noting that available convective allowing model (CAM) guidance had a pretty good handle on observed overnight shower activity. Much of this guidance suggests a second round of late overnight development in the vicinity of the Lower Keys continuing through after sunrise. Shower activity should generally wane in terms of coverage in the afternoon hours. The pattern for the next seven days will be remarkably consistent. High pressure parked in the western North Atlantic southwest of Bermuda will oscillate in terms of strength through the weekend. Winds will respond to this undulating pressure gradient, with occasionally peaking and lulling easterly breezes. Forecast soundings suggest the best chances for measurable rainfall will occur today and tonight, owed to a ribbon of deeper moisture extending throughout the boundary layer. Generally drier air appears to propagate into the area thereafter and through the weekend. However, global numerical weather prediction guidance suggests a somewhat weakened ridge over the Florida Keys for this period. Given this weakened ridge and the fact that we are approaching May, have elected to at least keep dime PoPs for this extended forecast. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm and moist. Highs will top out in the mid 80s, dropping to overnight minimum values in the mid 70s, and dewpoints will remain at or just below 70F. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Despite moderate to occasionally fresh breezes, especially in the coastal waters south of the island chain, there are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered southwest of Bermuda will continue to meander in the western North Atlantic through mid- week. With the high slowly weakening, east to southeast breezes will slacken, becoming gentle to moderate. As the high refortifies in the west North Atlantic late in the week and into the weekend, an extended period of generally moderate easterly breezes is expected. Breezes for this period will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, then lull during the daytime. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Brief bouts of shallow passing showers will be possible throughout today bringing short periods MVFR CIG and VIS to either terminal. While timing of these showers is generally uncertain, the earliest rain chances for MTH being earlier this morning with EYW being more likely to see precipitation after sunrise. Near surface winds will be generally out of the east at 10 to 15 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 1992, the daily record low temperature of 59F was measured at Key West International Airport. This is also the latest in the spring that a temperature below 60 degrees has ever been recorded in Key West. April temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 75 84 75 / 20 20 10 10 Marathon 84 75 84 75 / 20 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest