Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 260816
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

High pressure off the Carolina/Georgia coast remains wedged
between a surface low in the western North Atlantic and a
secondary low trekking northeast into the Great Lakes region.
This is maintaining fresh easterly breezes for now. KBYX was
tracking bands of showers earlier in the overnight but these have
all but dissipated. There has been an attempt for narrow bands of
convergence to develop over the Straits of Florida that are
producing some isolated pockets of sprinkles as of writing this.
Otherwise, temperatures are in the mid 70s with dew points in the
upper 60s to near 70, keeping conditions on the muggy side.

.FORECAST...

Really going to sound like a broken record here, but models remain
surprisingly on track for the next seven days. As such, have made
very little changes to the going forecast.

A cold front roughly parallel to the Mississippi Valley will
become orphaned later today as the parent low continues its
northeast trek across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. As
it becomes orphaned it will initially weaken. This in turn will
allow for the pressure gradient across the Keys to lessen as well
and winds will decrease as we go into this afternoon. We will
enjoy a brief reprieve from the breezy conditions we have been
experiencing over the last 24 hours.

By Wednesday evening, a shortwave riding through the southern
stream will interact with the orphan cold front and reinvigorate
it, allowing for a new broad area of low pressure to develop. It
will take until Thursday morning for a new low to consolidate in
the vicinity of the GA/SC coast. Meanwhile, a Canadian high will
dive southeast and help propel the front towards the Florida Keys.
Timing still looks to be set for Thursday afternoon with a narrow
band of decaying showers and thunderstorms along the leading
edge. Behind the front expect fresh to strong northwest breezes to
surge across the region. As the trailing high moves into the
western North Atlantic, breezes will quickly shift to the
northeast. Breezes will relax on Saturday as the high treks
further east and flattens.

Near seasonal weather will persist leading up to the frontal
passage. We will see temperatures fall a few degrees, most
notably the overnight lows Thursday and Friday nights. Dew points
will dip to near 60 degrees, keeping conditions a little more
comfortable. Other than a threat for precipitation with the front,
most of the forecast period looks to be relatively dry.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all Florida Keys
coastal waters due to fresh east to southeast breezes. High
pressure bulging off the Carolina/Georgia coast will maintain
fresh east to southeast breezes through this morning. Breezes will
then diminish briefly ahead of the next cold front which should
press into the Keys Thursday afternoon. Expect a period of fresh
to strong breezes Thursday afternoon and Thursday night on the
back side of the cold front. Fresh northeasterly breezes on Friday
will diminish and veer to the east by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Dry, VFR conditions will dominate weather at EYW and MTH
throughout the TAF period. Near surface winds will gradually
slacken from fresh to moderate breezes by sunset. CIGS will remain
between FL030 and FL050 if present.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 1937,the daily record
high temperature of 88F was recorded. Temperature records at Key
West date back to 1873.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  76  84  75 /  10  10   0  10
Marathon  84  75  85  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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