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000
FXUS64 KLCH 190235
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
935 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Local 88Ds have shown a few showers/storm or two associated with a
passing shortwave over the past couple of hours...expect this
activity and any new convection to move ewd with the disturbance
into the overnight hours. Regional 88Ds show additional strong
convection upstream...however not expecting this activity to make
it into the forecast area as it would have to overcome quite a bit
of dry air as noted in the KLCH/KSHV 00z soundings.

Otherwise, no significant changes to inherited grids/zones this
evening, with the main issue remaining patchy fog late.

Update already issued.
25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Short wave will continue to move off to the east and with it rain
chances will decrease with current shower activity expected to be
gone by sundown.

Winds again will decrease after sunset with light south flow
bringing low level moisture through the night. Low clouds will
again develop and fill in during the overnight. Some patchy fog
will also be possible, however, winds should stay up enough above
the surface with enough mixing to preclude widespread fog.

Shower activity is expected to stay north of the forecast area on
Friday closer to a stalled frontal boundary. This will leave just
warm and muggy conditions with a few peeks of sunshine between
clouds.

A short wave will move eastward on Saturday out of the Plains and
help push a surface "cold" front into the northwest portion of
the forecast area late in the day, then gradually push it to the
southeast during the night. Ahead of the front, copious amounts
of Gulf moisture will pool across it, with high moisture values.
PWAT values will be above the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo
and not too far below max values with reading between 1.5 and 1.75
inches to go along with 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity
above 80 percent.

Frontal convergence to go along with just enough instability to
get widespread showers and thunderstorms going during the night.
Heavy rainfall will be the main concern especially from any
stronger convection that will produce high rainfall rates and any
training as flow begins to parallel the front. For the forecast
area, the best chance of this happening will be over upper
southeast Texas. Rainfall amounts will average in the 1/2 to 1
inch range, however there is a 50 percent probability of over 1
inch and a 25 percent probability of over 2 inches for Tyler
county, and the northern portions of Jasper and Newton counties,
where WPC has outlined that area in a Slight Risk potential (level
2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall that may lead to flooding.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The above mentioned frontal boundary will move southeast across
the forecast area during Sunday morning into early afternoon. Very
good moisture values ahead of the front will allow for high rain
chances and some heavy rain potential. WPC has outlined the
Louisiana portion of the forecast in a Marginal Risk potential
(level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall that may lead to
flooding.

The northerly winds will bring in cooler temperatures at the
surface to go along with the clouds and rain making high
temperatures for southeast Texas and central Louisiana much cooler
than what has been occurring.

The dry continental air mass will filter in during the day on
Sunday into Sunday night, with clear and cool conditions during
the night.

High pressure will settle in for Monday with fair conditions and
low humidity. This will be short lived however, as the high will
move off to the east on Tuesday with southerly winds and the warm
and muggy conditions returning.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR ceilings will gradually materialize through the evening with
patchy IFR ceilings developing through the early morning hours.
Ceilings will gradually improve after sunrise through early
afternoon. Winds at the I-10 terminals will be south to south to
southeast and generally light. At AEX winds will be mostly light
and VRB.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Mainly light to occasional modest southeast to south flow will
persist into Saturday as high pressure off to the east ridges into
the coastal waters.

A front boundary will move into the coastal waters late Saturday
night into early Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to
accompany the front.

Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will move in. With
rather warm Gulf temperatures, this should allow for some
turbulence and mixing in the lower layers that will help increase
northerly flow. Wind speeds will be such that a small craft
advisory will likely be needed during Sunday into Sunday night.

Northerly winds will decrease on Monday as high pressure settles
in over the region.

Onshore winds will return during Tuesday as the high pressure
system moves off to the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  85  64  77 /  10  10  10  30
LCH  70  85  68  84 /  10   0   0  10
LFT  71  86  70  85 /  10   0   0  10
BPT  71  85  69  83 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05