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000
FXUS64 KLUB 110523
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The CWA is positioned on the backside of the opening shortwave
trough that is currently pivoting into northeastern Texas. NVA
(subsident) air continues to advect overhead within the belt of
northwesterly flow. Blustery conditions will persist throughout the
rest of the afternoon as the boundary-layer mixes to around 700 mb
beneath the full insolation, which has also generated a narrow field
of fair weather cu which will also dissipate at sunset. The
combination of a clear sky and light winds tonight will maximize
radiative cooling effects, with near-freezing temperatures forecast
across the far northwestern South Plains and extreme southwestern TX
PH. Shortwave ridging will continue to shift towards the region
tomorrow, with the corresponding surface anticyclone drifting into
the Big Country by the afternoon. Winds will then transition to the
south across the Caprock and remain variable in the Rolling Plains
amidst warm temperatures area-wide.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Upper-level ridging will remain over the forecast area from Friday
till early next week which is when our next system of interest is
expected to impact the region. This will keep our weather quiet the
remainder of the week and over the weekend with steadily rising
temperatures back into the 80s by Friday and mid and upper 80s for
the weekend. Lee surface troughing will also remain in place across
eastern New Mexico through the weekend which will keep our winds
breezy each afternoon out of the southwest. Our upper-level pattern
will change on Monday as an upper-level low moves over southern
California and quickly approaches our region. Exact details remain
uncertain this far out but there is at least some potential for a
severe weather event across our eastern areas still.
Unfortunately, a larger number of ensemble members are now showing
an open-wave moving across the area which would suggest more of a
wind event for us. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain light with speeds at or less than 11 kts throughout with
direction gradually veering from north to south as surface high
pressure moves to the east of the forecast area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...07